First-tier city real estate policies continue to tighten, and the housing market may迎来 a "small spring"

By the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, policies on real estate in first-tier cities will enter a new round of concentrated release and optimization cycle. On February 25, Shanghai issued seven new measures to systematically optimize restrictions on purchases, housing provident funds, and related taxes and fees. Previously, in December 2025, Beijing also lowered requirements for non-local household registration, social security, and individual income tax periods for home purchases, and optimized down payment ratios and loan limits for provident fund mortgages. Shenzhen continued to relax restrictions on purchase eligibility and second-home loan policies. Guangzhou further eased purchase restrictions in peripheral areas and strengthened credit support.

In addition to demand-side optimization, in early February, core districts in Shanghai simultaneously promoted pilot programs for second-hand housing stockpiling and the procurement of affordable rental housing, encouraging exchanges of old for new. The policy framework is gradually shifting from solely stimulating transactions to improving market structure and managing expectations. Overall, policies in first-tier cities have shifted from minor adjustments to a combined approach, significantly expanding the toolbox for demand-side measures, with a clear acceleration in policy pace and increased marginal strength.

Policy signals from first-tier cities, clear intention to stabilize

As the bellwether of the national real estate market, the synchronized reinforcement of policies in first-tier cities indicates an increased emphasis on stabilizing the market and expectations, sending a clear signal of market stabilization. The net population inflow in these cities remains solid, with strong industrial and employment capacity, making them the most resilient regions for real estate demand nationwide. The noticeable loosening of policies in these cities suggests that the goal of stabilizing the market has shifted from “risk prevention” to “stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery.”