[Red Envelope] Focus on the main theme PK! The top battle between retail traders' strategies and institutional strategies!

The main theme is basically a choice between small metals (tungsten) and electricity. [Taogu Ba]

The trading game I should have played on Friday is already done; now it’s just about seeing who still stands in the market after Monday’s showdown.

Some teachers might be surprised—aren’t markets supposed to rotate? Why is a main theme suddenly emerging again?

Here’s a little extra for everyone.

First, I also made normal preparations before the market opened, still viewing it as a rotation among institutions.

After all, the structural bull market announced the day before has indeed made money for institutional funds!

But there’s a question: after the open, did Yunnan Energy Holdings unexpectedly hit the seventh limit-up?

Whether or not Yunnan Energy Holdings hits the seventh limit-up in the end, two things are certain:

First, Yunnan Energy Holdings itself has no trading value!

Second, hitting the seventh limit-up is a good thing.

Regarding the first point, whether because the first limit-up was driven by a one-word trigger or as a market breakthrough benchmark, Yunnan Energy Holdings itself has no trading value!

If you understand this, good; if not, two times of explanation should clarify it.

The second point, Yunnan Energy Holdings hitting the seventh limit-up is indeed good for the market. It’s a significant breakthrough in market anomalies and a positive feedback to market sentiment! For example, originally everyone was afraid of abnormal moves and dared not buy, even panicking and selling early.

Now, there’s one stock that everyone sold but didn’t drop. If there’s no negative feedback afterward, won’t everyone become more willing to buy? Wouldn’t market sentiment improve?

Yunnan Energy Holdings’ breakout is good, but it itself has no trading value. Where will the funds go?

First, they will definitely go to stocks with similar or slightly lower market positions.

But looking at this operation method, these are also amateurs.

So, it can only be stocks in the same sector as Yunnan Energy Holdings and roughly at the same market level.

Yunnan Energy’s sector was originally electricity, but recently some analysis software has started adding some power concepts. The main hype is about electricity going overseas, similar to token exports.

This logic is actually flawed!

Token going overseas refers to our AI progress being dramatically ahead of other countries globally. Since the US lacks electricity, even if data is transmitted via submarine cables to China, processed, and then sent back, the cost is still significantly lower than computing directly in the US, so tokens have export value!

Submarine cables and other infrastructure already exist, with no construction costs. The concept of token going overseas is originally nonexistent, so now there’s an innovative value from zero to one.

But electricity, we already sell to nearby countries like Vietnam, and electricity exports are not new.

Moreover, regardless of whether Europe or the US buy your electricity, even if they do, grid connection and peak-valley balancing are not things that can be done overnight!

Do you think the concept of electricity going overseas has trading value?

If all these don’t work, then the last option is to follow sentiment in sectors with similar market positions to Yunnan Energy Holdings!

The market’s short-term sentiment mainly revolves around two sectors: price hikes and electricity.

In the price hike sector, chemical industry stocks collapsed, as evidenced by Chensheng and Jinjingda.

Chemical stocks collapsed, but tungsten metal started to rise against the trend. Could this be a sign to look higher?

Normally, I don’t trade nonferrous metals in A-shares because they are heavily influenced by futures, and the returns are less than directly trading futures, with higher risks.

But tungsten metal is really niche; it’s not even in the futures exchange.

So, it’s something that A-shares can price themselves!

Plus, on Friday afternoon, funds that missed out directly pushed Zhongwu High-tech to hit the board.

If the funds that missed out are here, can I add a premium at the front?

I won’t hype stocks, but this timing really is a bottleneck.

Next week, watch the showdown between tungsten metals and electricity sectors. As long as a clear decision is made on Monday, this will be the main theme next week!

Let’s also talk about institutional strategies.

Institutions still prefer rotation. Due to news hype, stocks related to Huawei have risen more.

Normally, companies like Inspur have already peaked. But because they are highly related to Huawei, funds are still pushing them.

This part can be treated as rotation.

What to watch next is whether sentiment and logic can resonate or coexist.

If the market can trigger a resonance between gaming and machinery, that would be ideal!

More details will be discussed during the week, and I’ll review some reports over the weekend to see if there’s any good news from the news side.

Special thanks to @WuhuQifeiFeiFei, @YiqieJieYouYou2025, @JinZhongXiZhao, @WoHaiHaoQian, @BeiWoShiQingChunDeFenMu, @HahaAi, @SuijiXuanXuan, @ErShuChaoGu, @KaipiZhiLiu, @DaoJianXiao66, @RiShengDaiYueLuo, @ChuLaiZhaDao, @TuHu, @PaShangYueQiuKanXingXing, @ZQZQ1996, and 15 other teachers for their support!

Special thanks also to @WeiAnZe, @cygj8998, @SiHuoZi, @DianZhenZhenDuanGuYou, @ShuiDaoQuCheng, @DaDaoZhiJianZhiWuWei, @XingYunDaMengDe, @WuhuQifeiFeiFei, @XianShiMei, @FeiYuA, @MiKaiLangJiRui, @WoHaiHaoQian, @DaiGuChīRou, @pforp, @HuangHuang113, @C3510, @GuYou, @ShouWangMaiTianDeXingFeng, @HuaHuaShiJie20221125, @WoShiMingMing, @QwertyuiopF for their support!

Although I still haven’t successfully recovered my reach, I am still being limited in exposure.

But I’ve argued my case and managed to give everyone another live broadcast opportunity, probably next Friday or Saturday!

If you have topics you want to hear, teachers can tell me in advance!