The three main dimensions of the Zhuque Road gaming theme logic! Once you understand, you can also judge major market trends

Brothers, this week has been incredibly tough! It was very difficult to navigate, especially for short-term funds, because recent market movements are trend-based. For example, the chemical and non-ferrous metals sectors that are rising in price, as well as the tech sector, are rotating quickly without continuity. The only sector that showed some persistence this week was phosphate chemicals, but even that only lasted less than two days: it started on the first day, moved in unison on the second, and diverged on the third. Without quick thinking to react immediately and exceptional stock-picking skills, it’s really hard to keep up. So, what can we do besides sigh? We need to learn hard! How to learn hard? Start by studying the daily pre-market analysis and intraday insights from Zhuque Road! Anyone who follows these can gain important information and align with Zhuque Road’s thinking! [Taoguba]

This week, Zhuque Road’s strategy received all positive feedback! I’ve been deep reviewing almost every day, often until around 2 a.m. after finishing the morning trading strategy. To do well this week, I had to put in more time than before. If you don’t have that time, or don’t know how or where to review, reading my articles and ideas, and aligning with Zhuque Road’s approach at the right granularity, is the best and fastest choice! Past events don’t mean they’re over; if you want insights, you must review with practical application in mind. That’s the meaning and value of review:

Tuesday Review: At the start of the pre-market, I saw that the relay ecology was weak, so I immediately reacted to the trend ecology. In the first minute of the open, I saw funds favoring oil, so I shared that direction early, having already identified two core stocks before the market opened: Tongyuan Oil and Intercontinental Oil & Gas. Zhuque Road has repeatedly emphasized a key point—among stocks with equal standing, the first to hit the daily limit-up is usually the strongest. After the market opened, the main index dropped sharply, but chemicals held up relatively well, so I shared the logic behind glass fiber and the sector’s strength, with core stocks being International Composite and Honghe Technology. I also mentioned Shandong Glass Fiber’s convertible bond. Both International Composite and Honghe Technology hit the daily limit-up, and Shandong Glass Fiber’s convertible bond touched the limit-up briefly at the close.

Wednesday Review: 1. During pre-market, I removed Shandong Glass Fiber’s convertible bond from my watchlist. After analysis, I confirmed that phosphate chemicals had high certainty, so I identified Chuanjinnuo, which was also the top gainer on the ChiNext board on Tuesday. In the end, it was still the best choice for the day.
2. The core stocks I shared on Tuesday—oil, Honghe Technology, and International Composite—gave good feedback that day.

Thursday Review: During pre-market, I saw Jinjingda block the Chengxing Shares. Since I couldn’t buy Jinjingda, I predicted that Chuanjinnuo might surge, and after the open, I suggested removing Chuanjinnuo from the watchlist after it surged—20 centimeters was still satisfying.

Friday Review: I suggested buying Jinjingda on dips. Jinjingda is a core stock that emerged from phosphate chemical sector internal competition. The sector had no negative feedback, and funds pushed it back up at the close.

Once again, I emphasize the importance of reviewing Zhuque Road’s early morning analysis. Everyone’s curious about how the legendary big players operate, so I’ll share about a top-tier friend of mine—he spends over three hours every day doing deep review, which is his daily must-do. I’ll also share how my work this week was different from usual: I had to do in-depth reviews to cope with the market. I’ve been writing morning strategies until around 2 a.m. almost every day. If your time is limited or you don’t know how or where to review, reading my articles and ideas, and aligning with Zhuque Road’s approach at the right level, is the best and fastest way!

Brothers, staying curious and thinking constantly are the survival rules for A-share investors. Relying on old experience and methods will make it very hard to survive in today’s market. Zhuque Road cares about its followers. Over the weekend, I’ll post a practical article to help everyone improve. This time, the content is distilled from my last live broadcast, explaining Zhuque Road’s 超预期体系 (“Super Expectation System”) — the three key dimensions of “Theme Logic”. Understanding this will help you judge big trends. Many friends chase news impulsively, only to end up with one-day trades. Why can some themes run for a month, while others only last a morning? When facing a theme or stock, how do we objectively evaluate its underlying expectations from a logical perspective? Once you understand this set of principles, you’ll know not only what to buy but also when to broaden your view and when to exit. Now, let’s begin the main content—Zhuque Road’s three dimensions of theme logic for strategic judgment. Understand these, and you can also judge big trends!

Expectations can be big or small, and in finer detail, they are all-encompassing. To build an objective evaluation system, Zhuque Road’s 超预期体系 breaks down a worthy expectation into three core dimensions:

· First Dimension — Continuity of Expectation. It determines how far the logic can go.
· Second Dimension — Popularity of Expectation. It determines how broad the consensus is—niche or market-wide.
· Third Dimension — Impossibility to Falsify Expectation. It determines how long the story can last—fragile bubble or solid fortress.

Only by considering these three dimensions together can we make a relatively objective judgment about logical expectations. Specifically, it depends on whether the expectation of a theme possesses “continuity, popularity, and impossibility to falsify.” These are the three dimensions Zhuque Road uses to assess the size of a theme.

Dimension One: Continuity of Expectation
People often hear “one-day trades.” Why? Because the logic is fulfilled too quickly or has no follow-up potential. Continuity expectation means viewing expectations from a development perspective, clarifying whether the current logic is in its infancy or about to be realized.

1. What kind of expectation has no continuity? — Clear-commitment type
   For example, annual “No. 1 Document,” certain Olympics, or product launches. These have clear time points.
   Features: Funds will pre-position before the event. When the document is released or the event occurs, that’s when the “good news” is realized. It’s the “buy the expectation, sell the fact” principle.
   Example 1: Geopolitical resource stocks (repeatedly seen last year). Whenever conflicts like Israel-Palestine or recent US-Iran tensions escalate, markets short-term rally in oil, gold, shipping sectors. But these “event-driven” expectations peak on the news day and then fade. The core reason: the event itself isn’t sustainable and doesn’t change the long-term supply-demand pattern of related commodities. Without further escalation, funds quickly cash out.
   Example 2: Real estate sector. Why does real estate often have one-day trades? Because under current fundamentals, it lacks long-term growth logic. Occasionally, it’s about betting on “policy benefits.” But if the benefits come out as expected, the expectation is fulfilled; if not, it ends.

Expectations with clear time points are usually pre-positioned, and most of the trading is done before the fulfillment date. For funds chasing the board, there’s no real continuity. For pre-positioned funds, continuity is limited—they won’t spend half a year pre-loading, maybe just a month or so, and then they cash out. Expectations with a clear fulfillment time generally lead to small-scale moves, rarely forming a big theme. There are exceptions—if a certain meeting or document is released and exceeds market expectations significantly, it might be traded for a few more days.

2. What kind of expectation has continuity? — Starry Sky type
   This logic takes a long time to materialize, often just in its early stages now.
   Example 1: AI computing power and semiconductors. Moving from “theme hype” to “performance-driven,” its continuity depends on technological iteration and application deployment. It’s not a one-off trade but a continuous evolution driven by increasing computing needs and chip process improvements, generating new tech links and beneficiaries.
   Example 2: ChatGPT (AIGC). Why was it repeatedly hyped? Because it’s just the beginning—an initial step. Domestic companies need time to reach the same level and commercialize, which is a long process.
   Example 3: Humanoid robots. Over the past year, humanoid robots have moved from “concept” to “pre-mass production,” with their continuity based on the gradual formation of the industry chain.
   Thinking long-term: humanoid robots are seen as the next-generation smart terminal after smartphones and new energy vehicles. The length and breadth of the industry chain determine that this expectation will evolve repeatedly along the maturity curve.

From the evolution in A-shares, we see that themes with continuity often feature “industry germination—policy support—gradual performance—long-term grandeur.” Sectors like low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, AI computing, and humanoid robots are not driven by a single news event but by industry trends that take “years to decades” to fully realize. They may just be the beginning now, but because of long realization cycles and broad industry involvement, they have value for repeated speculation. Our goal isn’t to chase those news that come out tonight and are gone by tomorrow, but to find those themes that are breaking from 0 to 1 and about to expand from 1 to N in the narrative of the starry sky.

Summary: We should try to participate in these “starry sky” long-term expectations. Not necessarily expecting them to rise immediately, but because they have minimal short-term falsification or realization risks.

Dimension Two: Popularity of Expectation
Is this expectation a niche hype or widely known? Let’s understand this from two parts.

1. Simple, down-to-earth themes
   Example 1: Masks, ibuprofen. Why did masks have a huge rally back then? Because it didn’t require any complicated explanation. Everyone knew masks were in short supply, and mask factories made money. The logic was highly popular, with huge potential buyers and explosive power. Think about it: why can’t many high-end lettered themes break out? Because they’re too obscure, ordinary people don’t understand what they’re about. Even ten research reports a day aren’t as straightforward as people not being able to buy masks at the pharmacy.
   Example 2: Gold consumption boom (through 2025-2026). Since 2025, gold prices have been rising steadily. Domestic spot gold investment prices broke 1252 yuan/gram, and domestic pure gold jewelry prices broke 1600 yuan/gram. This isn’t just numbers on a chart; it’s the price tags people see when they walk into Chow Tai Fook or Lao Feng Xiang. Buying gold for weddings, New Year, or investment—gold is deeply integrated into daily life. The value of precious metals, especially gold, is widely recognized in China and even globally. Zijin Mining’s net profit attributable to parent in 2025 is expected to reach 51-52 billion yuan, up 59-62%, driven by increased gold production and rising gold and copper prices. The logic of “everyone sees gold prices rising and knows mining gold is profitable” is just like the masks and ibuprofen—no need for research reports, everyone perceives it from daily life.

Summary: When the public can directly perceive the logic in daily life, the potential buying power of that theme is the entire market, not just a few who understand research reports.

2. Logical considerations
   Example 1: Retail recovery at the start of the pandemic reopening. The logic seemed clear—people would start consuming again. Why didn’t it surge? Because people were “afraid of catching the virus.” Streets were empty, malls were deserted, and the recovery wasn’t felt by ordinary folks. The logic wasn’t widely understood, so it didn’t go far.
   Example 2: AI hardware terminals. Despite broad industry prospects, AI hardware remains a “niche hype.” Ordinary consumers haven’t used AI glasses yet, so they can’t perceive the investment value of this track.

Summary: The most explosive themes are often not the most complex but have the strongest mass foundation. When considering themes, focus on whether they are widely popular. If a theme is well-accepted by the public, it can have strong explosive potential.

Dimension Three: Impossibility to Falsify Expectation
What does “impossibility to falsify” mean? It means you can’t prove its “truthfulness,” but you also can’t prove it’s “false.” Following the traditional belief—better to believe it exists than not—markets tend to buy in first and ask questions later. Some logic is known to be false but can’t be proven, so it’s bought first and questioned later.

For example, rumors of “billion-dollar orders” for a tech giant. This is a classic unfalsifiable pattern in A-shares. Usually, it involves: a core component supplier in a new tech track (like humanoid robots, AI chips, commercial aerospace) rumored to have secured huge orders from international or domestic tech giants.

Uncertain phase:
Rumors often blend truth and falsehood—the company may indeed be part of a giant’s supply chain or have related plans, making the rumor plausible. The order amount is often described as “tens of billions to hundreds of billions,” far exceeding current revenue, creating imagination space.
Due to confidentiality, companies can’t disclose customer info freely or immediately deny rumors—this creates a golden unfalsifiable window, where market funds speculate, “it’s probably true,” causing collective stock movements.

Falsification phase:
When stock movements trigger regulatory inquiries or rumors are confirmed, companies release clarifications. The logic is then falsified, and the trend ends. The unfalsifiability comes from the confidentiality of commercial orders—both “having” and “not having” can’t be confirmed in the short term.

We often say stock trading is about ambiguous expectations—this ambiguity refers to the unfalsifiability of expectations. When a logic is confirmed or falsified, it’s usually the moment expectations are realized. This reminds us: participating in ambiguous expectations is a race against time. You must exit before the logic is falsified, or you’ll be caught off guard. With AI large models spreading information instantly and collecting data from the entire internet, the speed of information dissemination and the difficulty in verifying truth make unfalsifiable hype even more complex.

After mastering Zhuque Road’s 超预期体系 (Super Expectation System) and its three dimensions for judging big trends, we’ll know that when facing a new theme, don’t rush in blindly. First, ask these three “soul questions”:

Looking back at major historical themes, most that have sustained profit cycles possess at least one of these three characteristics. Those lacking all three tend to be one-day wonders. Using these principles, you can more accurately assess whether a theme has lasting potential. After understanding today’s content, with a few months of observation and validation, you should be able to judge whether a new theme is worth betting on.

Brothers, if you truly learn to sense market breathing in real trading and grasp the essence of Zhuque Road’s “超预期” (Super Expectation) system, you’ll find that consistent, stable trading results are not out of reach. The high wall between “seeing right” and “doing right” can actually be dismantled. Zhuque Road’s sharing aims only to genuinely help those most determined and willing to break the current state. If you’re tired of fragmented information and incomplete knowledge absorption, and if you want someone to guide you through market illusions directly to the core of capital battles and emotional resonance, walking together with Zhuque Road might become a pivotal turning point in your trading career.

This week’s free trial for brothers in gold, silver, and powder sectors has concluded. The strategy has received full positive feedback and praise! After trying it, if you feel a good fit with Zhuque Road or want more positive feedback, please explore the treasure on Zhuque Road’s homepage. Looking forward to battling new opportunities together next week!