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Early this morning, global risk assets experienced indiscriminate selling, and the cryptocurrency market saw a "crash-like" decline. In this sell-off sweeping US stocks, precious metals, and crude oil, Ethereum was not spared, plunging over 13% intraday and briefly falling below the $1,800 mark. Bitcoin's leading decline was the main driver, with its price once breaking below $60,000, nearly halving from its high in October last year. Key data on the market plunge:
· Ethereum performance: briefly dipped below $1,800 during the day, with a 24-hour drop of over 13%
· Market liquidation: total on-chain liquidation over the past 24 hours ranged from $2.069 billion to $2.665 billion, with over 435,000 to 580,000 traders forced to liquidate
· Sentiment indicator: Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 9-10, indicating "Extreme Fear"
· Macro background: US Nasdaq fell nearly 2%, spot gold and silver dropped over 4% and 20%, respectively
Market analysis indicates that weak US employment data has intensified economic concerns, and the narrative of cryptocurrencies as "safe-haven assets" has already collapsed, making them the first to be sold off during liquidity tightening. Amid widespread panic, on-chain and capital data reveal complex game-playing, with notable divergence in behavior among institutions, whales, and retail investors.
Internal market conflicting signals:
1. Massive unrealized losses and steadfast holding by institutions: On-chain data shows entities related to MicroStrategy have an unrealized loss of approximately $10.16 billion, and those related to Tom Lee's Bitmine have an unrealized loss of about $8.65 billion. However, there are no signs of these institutions significantly reducing their holdings publicly, showing a "long-term holding under pressure" stance.
2. Whales countertrend actions: Unlike institutions passively enduring losses, some on-chain whales are actively buying. For example, the well-known whale address "7 Siblings" increased its ETH holdings by 17,757 ETH during the plunge. Meanwhile, off-chain USDT prices are trading at a premium, indicating funds are seeking entry.
3. Overall deterioration of liquidity: Capital flows into US Bitcoin ETFs have reversed from net buying last year to net selling, with institutional demand significantly waning. Ethereum ETFs are also facing outflows.
4. Challenges to ecosystem narratives: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently questioned the roadmap centered around Rollups, stating "L2 no longer makes sense," prompting a re-evaluation of Ethereum's long-term scalability narrative.