#MyWeekendTradingPlan Futures Market Outlook — Defense First, Then Precision Attack

The crypto futures market is entering the weekend under extreme stress, and the environment clearly favors caution over aggression. Bitcoin’s sharp move from the $80,000 region down into the $75,000–$77,000 range triggered more than $2.5 billion in long liquidations, flushing out excessive leverage in a very short time. This type of event typically resets the market, but it does not automatically signal an immediate reversal. Right now, sentiment is fragile, liquidity is thin, and emotions are high — all classic ingredients for volatility traps.
From a positioning standpoint, this is not the moment to play hero. Despite dip buyers calling for a V-shaped recovery, the broader macro backdrop argues for a strategic defensive posture. A partial U.S. government shutdown, uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership, and ongoing inflation pressures are keeping global risk assets on edge. In such conditions, chasing price without confirmation is closer to gambling than trading. Preservation of capital is the priority.
Bitcoin remains the anchor for the entire market. The $75,000 level is the line in the sand — not just technically, but psychologically. Holding above this zone through the weekend would suggest that sellers are exhausting and that stronger hands are stepping in. However, a clean breakdown opens the door toward the $69,000–$70,000 region, which acts as the next major psychological and liquidity magnet. Until BTC establishes a stable base, sustained upside remains limited.
Rather than a clean trend, the most likely scenario is a sideways, volatile consolidation. After such a massive long flush, short-term relief bounces are common as shorts take profit and funding resets. However, weekend liquidity is thin, which increases the probability of sharp wicks in both directions. A true trend shift is more likely to be confirmed during Sunday night or Monday morning’s Asian session, when volume and institutional participation return.
Among majors, BTC and SOL remain the primary focus. Bitcoin must prove it can defend $75k before any meaningful confidence returns. Solana, currently testing the $100 psychological level, has historically led rebounds after liquidation-driven selloffs due to its high retail participation and aggressive momentum traders. If sentiment flips, SOL is often one of the first assets to respond with force.
Within the Solana ecosystem, JUP (Jupiter) continues to stand out. The residual momentum from the “Jupuary” airdrop keeps it firmly in high-beta territory, making it a prime candidate for volatility plays if SOL recovers. Additionally, DOGE is quietly showing strength beneath the surface — whale wallets have remained stable despite the drawdown, hinting at conviction and the potential for a meme-led bounce if overall sentiment improves.
One of the most important tells during market stress is relative strength. Tokens like XRP, supported by Ripple’s recent DFSA approval in Dubai, are showing resilience despite macro headwinds. Similarly, ZK and ZRO staying green during a red-heavy session is a major signal. Assets that refuse to dump during panic often outperform once conditions stabilize, making them key names to track for early rotation.
The dominant overhang remains macro uncertainty. The U.S. government shutdown has become a real-time risk-off catalyst, pushing some capital toward gold and USD as temporary safe havens. At the same time, markets are closely watching developments around Kevin Warsh and potential future Fed policy direction. Any hint of tighter or looser monetary conditions is immediately reflected in DXY — and crypto reacts accordingly.
While painful, the liquidation of over 430,000 traders has an important structural effect: it clears excess leverage from the system. A market with less leverage is healthier and capable of making cleaner moves once demand returns. This does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it significantly reduces the risk of cascading liquidations on modest downside moves, setting the stage for a more sustainable next trend.
For this weekend, I remain firmly in Defense Mode. Around 60% of my capital stays in stablecoins, with carefully placed limit orders in case of a BTC wick toward $74k. I’m watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $75k floor through Sunday night. If that support survives and momentum confirms during the Monday Asian open, I’ll rotate into Attack Mode, targeting high-beta assets like SOL and JUP for controlled volatility plays. In markets this unstable, patience is a weapon — and attacking without a shield is simply gambling.
Stay safe, manage risk, and trade smart. 🚀