2026-01-26 09:20:27

Here's a brief overview of this week's macroeconomic situation and my outlook on the market trend:

First, the positive news events:

- The Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision and press conference at 3:00 AM on January 29.

It is noteworthy that the Fed announced the end of QT in December 2025 and initiated short-term government bond purchases for reserve management. The market generally interprets this as a soft QE signal.

- Eurozone Q4 2025 GDP preliminary estimate released on January 29.

- China's official manufacturing PMI for January released on January 31.

Next, the negative news events:

- The US Consumer Confidence Index for January, released at 23:00 on January 27.

Consumer confidence is likely to weaken, with deteriorating resilience on the consumption side, and risk aversion continuing to increase.

- The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and monetary policy report on January 28.

Canada will address tariffs and trade uncertainties, which can be overly interpreted as negative signals by the market.

- US Q3 non-farm productivity and unit labor costs (revised/revised data) released on January 29.

Unit labor costs reflect overall inflation in the service sector and relate to future rate cut expectations.

- US December PPI revised data released on January 30.

PPI data may be somewhat stronger, which could dampen market expectations of rate cuts and lead to higher US Treasury yields.

- US Treasury bond auctions on January 27, 28, and 30.

The key is the auction results and whether demand is sufficient.

Briefly, my view:
No matter how many positive signals are released, they won't change the bear market pattern, nor will they alter the fact that the rebound is a weekly B-wave correction, which is already nearing exhaustion. If BTC price rebounds above 90,000 this week, decisively short it—don't hesitate.

When rebounding, remember to short in stages and time your entries, setting up BTC short positions. Take profits gradually on the long-term, targeting 86,000–85,000. If broken, continue to watch 84,000.

BTC-2.19%

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