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SOL Overall Analysis:
Price Trend: From a medium to long-term perspective, SOL formed an ascending channel starting from the December low of 117 USD. However, in the past 120 hours, it plummeted over 15% from the high of 148.88 USD, breaking below the lower boundary of the upward channel (130 USD), resulting in a series of large bearish candles and waterfall declines (marked "9" indicating bearish divergence). After touching a low of 124-125, it experienced a weak rebound, but the overall structure has collapsed, and the bears have taken full control. If it cannot hold above 130, it may accelerate downward to test 120 USD (a previous strong support).
Technical Indicators: MA/EMA: Short-term moving averages have a death cross downward, and long-term averages are accelerating downward, indicating a strong bearish bias. RSI: around 25, deeply oversold (<30), suggesting a potential short-term rebound but not reversing the downtrend. MACD: Red histogram continues to expand, death cross deepening, indicating strong bearish momentum. Volume: Massive volume during the decline, with extreme selling pressure.
Market Environment: The overall crypto market remains weak (BTC dropped below 91k USD), with no positive catalysts for SOL. The latest sentiment on X is bearish: traders mention increasing global economic uncertainty and liquidity squeeze causing a correction, with support levels at 120-125. Short-term further decline is possible, but some believe below 125 is a long-term buy zone. Real-time price confirms oscillation and downward movement in the 127-128 USD range.
Risks: With 5x leverage, SOL's high volatility (daily average 5%+) has already dropped 2.5% today, increasing the risk of chain reactions and liquidation.
My Recommendation: Short SOL/USDT
Reason: Bearish trend accelerates today (breakdown and death cross), suitable for short-term shorting. There may be a short-term oversold rebound, but intraday bears are dominant. Target price: 125-122 USD (space of 3-5%).
Entry Strategy: Short near the current price of 128 USD, or wait for a rebound to confirm resistance at 130 USD before entering. Position: scale in, starting with 500 USDT.
Stop Loss: Above 131 USD (rebound high), limit risk to 2% of capital (max unrealized loss of 20 USDT).
Take Profit: Scale out, first at 126 USD (lock in half), second at 124 USD. Expected profit: if it drops to 125, leverage could yield about 150-200 USDT.
Alternative: If it breaks above 131 and turns bullish, target 135+ (but probability is very low).