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1.21 Morning Gold Analysis: Consolidation at High Levels, Bullish Structure Intact
This morning, spot gold is trading within a narrow range of 4780-4790 USD. After reaching the historic 4700 USD level yesterday, it surged and then retreated, showing a "volume increase and position reduction" pattern, reflecting profit-taking at high levels. Market divergence has intensified.
Trend Structure: The daily chart remains in a clear upward trend, with candlesticks continuously above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, and the medium- to long-term upward framework has not been broken. However, the daily RSI has risen to 76, entering overbought territory, indicating a short-term technical correction may be needed. Recent highs and lows continue to rise, with no trend reversal signals.
Geopolitical risks (Greenland dispute, US-EU tariff battles) and central bank gold purchases remain long-term supports. However, the diminishing expectation of Fed rate cuts and signals of easing geopolitical tensions are suppressing short-term gains.
Operationally, it is recommended to rely on support levels to build long positions and avoid blindly chasing highs: a rebound to the 4755-4760 USD range with a cautious position can be considered, with a stop-loss below 4720 USD; if volume breaks through 4830 USD, it can be followed up with long positions.