Bitcoin hits short-term holder cost basis; market faces a critical decision window

GasFeeLady · 2026-01-17T08:24:10+00:00

The current Bitcoin price is approaching the average cost basis of short-term holders, and the market is in a critical decision zone, with volatility potentially intensifying. There are two possible future trends: one is that the price stabilizes above $100,000 and turns bullish, and the other is that it breaks below $89,500, increasing selling pressure. Close attention should be paid to changes in technical positioning.

GasFeeLady

2026-01-17 08:24:10

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【Blockchain Rhythm】Bitcoin’s current quote is $95,500, which is already quite close to the short-term holder’s average cost basis of $99,460. The gap between the two has narrowed to just 4 percentage points, making this position particularly sensitive.

From a market characteristic perspective, we are now in a decision zone rather than a so-called breakdown state. Historical experience shows that when prices approach the cost basis region, volatility tends to increase. Such positions often become reaction points for the market—potentially continuing the current trend or reversing. Simply put, both possibilities are on the table.

The subsequent trend splits into two main scenarios: one is that the price stabilizes above $100,000, turning short-term holders from losses to profits, and the market will switch back to a bullish sentiment. The second is if the discount widens back to a double-digit range (falling below -10%), corresponding to a price drop to around $89,500, at which point the pressure from losing positions will significantly increase, and selling pressure may follow.

Overall, this is a technically critical position that warrants close attention, and the next choice lies in the hands of the market.

BTC-0.24%

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