Analyst: Bitcoin price is approaching the short-term holder cost basis, and the trend is expected to clarify after increased volatility.

On January 17, Crypto Quant analyst Axel posted that the Bitcoin price (currently $95,500) has approached the average purchase cost of short-term holders ($99,460), with the current price difference narrowing to just 4%. Axel explained that the current situation is within a decision zone rather than a market collapse. Historically, areas near the cost basis often experience increased volatility and become market response zones, which may continue the trend or trigger a reversal—either returning to a premium state or facing a new round of selling pressure. If the price stabilizes above $100,000 and short-term holders turn profitable, it indicates a shift back to a bullish outlook. If the discount rate re-enters a double-digit range (below -10%) and the price drops below approximately $89,500, it will significantly increase the pressure on losing positions.