#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Hint Sparks Market Explosion, Rate Cut Dreams Shattered by 2026

Last night, Wall Street collectively overreacted. As soon as Trump’s statement about his preferred Fed Chair candidate came out, the entire expectation framework for liquidity easing was shattered—from initially considering a dovish chair to now leaning hawkish. How fast did this shift happen? The market’s reaction was equally intense.

CME futures data speaks volumes: the probability of zero rate hikes in 2026 skyrocketed to 11.8%, while the chance of a cumulative rate cut exceeding 25 basis points dropped below 70%. In plain terms, the market’s expectation for liquidity easing has been cut in half, directly from a high level.

What does this mean? The underlying logic of crypto assets—the assumption of abundant global liquidity—is beginning to waver. Assets like $BTC and $ETH are fundamentally tied to the Fed’s monetary stance. Now, with the increased likelihood of a hawkish chair, it suggests that the next two years may face a tighter liquidity environment, which poses a clear short-term pressure on the crypto market.

How should ordinary investors survive? Stick to these three iron rules:

**1. Reduce leverage** — Volatility will rise significantly; continuing to play with high leverage is a suicidal move.

**2. Hold onto mainstream assets** — Funds will flow into the most certain assets like $BTC and $ETH; small coins and concept projects will be ruthlessly cleared out.

**3. Wait for clear signals before acting** — It’s wiser to wait until the new chair nomination is confirmed and macro data updates before making moves, rather than blindly bottom-fishing.

Short-term uncertainty is real, but this also presents a window to select quality assets and readjust positions. Don’t follow the herd in panic, nor be overly optimistic—wait for the market to give clear signals before taking action.