Can Bitcoin sustain a four-year cyclical rally in 2026? The answer might be more complicated than you think.

**Three forces are shaping the market**

The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts will continue to boost the appeal of risk assets—this is an old trick but still effective. More importantly, whether the dollar strengthens or weakens will directly impact liquidity levels. At the same time, capital flows into institutions and ETFs almost determine the medium-term direction, and their influence has already surpassed retail expectations. Don't forget the advancement of the U.S. "Cryptocurrency Responsibility and Transparency Act," which constitutes a substantial positive for Bitcoin's policy environment. The halving in 2024 has already significantly reduced new supply, and the ratio of stock to flow is sufficient to support long-term value expectations.

**What about 2026?**

Institutions are quite divided. The conservative camp estimates a range of $75,000 to $150,000, while the optimistic camp looks at $120,000 to $225,000. The market's center of gravity is roughly around $110,000, and volatility will definitely be high. Based on the rhythm, the first half of the year may see repeated bottoming, testing support around $75,000-$80,000. In the second half, if rate cuts and regulatory policies move in a positive direction, there is potential to push toward $120,000-$150,000, and by the end of the year, even reach $170,000.

Key levels to remember: support at $75,000-$80,000 and $99,000 (short-term holder's cost basis), resistance at $117,000 and $150,000.

**But risks cannot be ignored**

A sudden regulatory tightening, large outflows from ETFs, or unexpected macro policy rate hikes could trigger a deep correction, potentially dropping the price to $56,000-$70,000. The key is that the four-year cycle effect is weakening; macro policies and liquidity are becoming more influential, and the risk of "cycle failure" warrants vigilance.

**Practical approach**

If the price retraces below $80,000, buy in stages. If it stabilizes at $99,000, this could be a good entry point to add positions. Risk management always comes first.