#周末行情分析 BTC Technical Analysis

Current BTC price is 95360. The technical structure indicates that after successfully reclaiming the key mid-term moving average, the price is now facing the test of a dense resistance zone above. The market is at a critical juncture where the continuation of the rebound could lead to a reversal. Both bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition at key levels.

In-depth Technical Structure Analysis

Multi-timeframe Technical State Analysis:

· The price has clearly broken above the MA30 (94667) key mid-term trend line, marking the first effective recovery since the decline, which is highly significant.
· The short-term moving average system shows positive changes: MA5 (95175) and MA10 (95342) form a golden cross, with the price trading above them.
· However, the MA20 (95804) above acts as a clear resistance, which also served as an important platform resistance during the previous decline.
· MACD indicator shows conflicting signals: DIF value (543.4) remains relatively high, but the DEA line (786.7) forms resistance, and the histogram is negative, indicating that upward momentum still needs to be built.
· RSI (54.7) is in a neutral-strong zone, leaving room for an upward breakout but not yet entering overbought territory.

Multiple Validations at Key Levels:

Upper Resistance Zone: 95804-96400 triple resistance

1. Technical pressure: MA20 (95804) dynamic resistance line coincides with the previous decline platform.
2. Fibonacci resistance: The 50% retracement of the 94600-100000 decline band is near 96000.
3. Psychological pressure: The 96000 round number and previous dense trading area.

Lower Support Zone: 94667-95175 double defense line

1. Primary defense: MA30 (94667) mid-term trend line, the lifeline of the rebound.
2. Secondary defense: The short-term support band formed by MA5 (95175) and MA10 (95342).
3. Order support: Chart shows significant buy orders accumulated below 95000.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flow:

· Buy volume accounts for 56.56%, indicating market sentiment shifting from pessimism to cautious optimism.
· However, trading volume is relatively shrinking, suggesting the current rebound lacks substantial new capital inflow.
· Mining yields remain high at 9.99%, with miners' reluctance to sell providing fundamental support.

Bull-Bear Battle Path Projection:

Path One (Probability 55%): Consolidation then upward breakthrough
Price continues to oscillate in the 95100-95800 range, using time to absorb upward selling pressure. Subsequently, with moderate volume increase, it breaks through 95804 resistance and stabilizes above 96000, initiating an upward trend toward 97000-98000.

Path Two (Probability 45%): Rebound fails, retesting lows
Price encounters resistance near 95800 and falls back, testing support zones at 95100-94667. If the key support at 94667 is broken, the rebound structure is invalidated, and the price may dip again to 94000-93500 for support.

Refined Trading Strategies:

Current Range Trading (95100-95800):

· Bullish Strategy: If the price stabilizes after retracing to 95100-95300, consider adding to long positions with a stop loss at 94800, targeting 95600→95800.
· Bearish Strategy: If the price rises to 95700-95850 and stalls, consider light short positions (hedging), with a stop loss at 96100, targeting 95300→95100.
· Position Management: Maintain 3-4% of bottom-position longs, with floating positions not exceeding 2%.

Breakout Follow-up Strategies:

· Upward Breakout: Volume breakout above 95900 with a 1-hour close can be followed with long entries, stop loss at 95500, target 96500→97000.
· Downward Breakdown: Volume breakdown below 95000 with no recovery within 30 minutes suggests reducing longs, stop loss at 95200, target 94667→94300.
· Key Confirmation: Breakouts require volume increase of over 30% to be considered valid.

Current Optimal Strategy:
It is recommended to adopt a "cautiously hold longs, add on breakout" slightly bullish approach. Maintain 3-4% bottom-position longs until the price clearly breaks below 95000 or surpasses 95900. Focus on two key test results: the breakout of the 95800 resistance zone and the strength of the retest of the 95100-95300 support zone.

Pay particular attention to volume confirmation—breakouts lacking volume are often false signals. Healthy upward movement requires "price rise with increasing volume." If volume shrinks during an upward push past 95800, beware of trap setups; conversely, volume breakout is more reliable.

(The market is at a critical decision point. It is advised to stay flexible. Subscribers can access real-time long-short ratio adjustments, precise order price settings to the hundred, and phased position-building plans for breakout scenarios.)