Having been in the crypto space for so many years, my deepest insight is seeing the clear difference between two types of people. One group is always chasing—hot topics, narratives, trending opportunities; the other is waiting—waiting for value to emerge, waiting for market corrections, waiting for genuine opportunities.

Many friends around me belong to the former. What is their daily state like? During the day, they monitor community messages, afraid of missing any hot news; at night, they stare at the K-line charts, fingers repeatedly hovering over buy and sell buttons. The result? Either they get trapped in so-called "star projects," or they make a small profit and rush to exit, only to find that the assets they once ignored have already risen tenfold.

You ask me how I am so sure? Because the data is right there. Over the past five years, how many times has the crypto market experienced "全民运动" (全民运动-style) hype waves? From the initial ideals of decentralized currency, to the explosion of DeFi, then to the frenzy of NFTs, and more recently AI chains and ecosystem tokens—roughly over twenty solid tracks have been repeatedly hyped. But looking back now, how many are still doing well? The ones that can operate stably and generate ongoing value account for less than 5%. And the rest? They’ve long disappeared into the dust of history.

The logic behind this is actually very sobering: most projects have a lifecycle like a fireworks display—glorious when they start, but zeroing out immediately once the hype fades. People jumping in on the bandwagon are essentially betting they won’t be the last to take over. This kind of gamble has a higher probability of losing than winning.

The money I’ve made over these years has never come from chasing hot trends. Instead, it’s from those "counterintuitive" decisions—staying calm when others are frantic, daring to act when others are fearful. It sounds like motivational talk, but it really works.

How can you break out of the trap of chasing hot topics? I’ve summarized a few practical strategies:

**First, replace hype-based judgment with value-based judgment.** Many people judge a project’s quality primarily by community activity or buzz. This is a huge misconception. Truly worthwhile investments are often those with solid fundamentals, even if discussion is moderate. Ask yourself: what real problem does this project solve? Is its economic model reasonable? How capable is the team? These are the factors that determine life or death, not whether your name appears on Weibo trending searches.

**Second, establish your own "cold start" mechanism.** Don’t let FOMO emotions dominate your decisions. Develop an investment framework—set rules for when to enter and exit—and follow them. It may sound dull, but that’s the difference between a professional and a gambler. My approach is that before entering a new project, I require at least three weeks of observation, no matter how hot it is. Waiting filters out a lot of trash projects.

**Third, learn to adopt different strategies in different cycles.** The approach in a bull market is completely different from a bear market. During bear markets, focus more on research and accumulation rather than rushing to buy the dip. When a bull market arrives, don’t chase everything; selectively participate in projects with genuinely strong fundamentals. Being aware of the cycle is crucial—many people, lacking this awareness, end up holding at high points and selling at lows.

Crypto investing ultimately is about finding relative certainty amid uncertainty. Hot topics and trending opportunities are just noise. The real chances to make big money are often hidden where others are pessimistic and discussion is low. Focus your time and energy on understanding project fundamentals and refining your investment framework—this is far more effective than chasing hot trends every day.

This circle’s biggest shortage isn’t hot topics; it’s patience and resilience.