2026-01-17 03:20:34

Stop blindly believing in the four-year cycle theory. Will Bitcoin in 2026 fall below $30,000 or make a comeback and break through $200,000? Today, we won't take sides; we'll just look at historical data.

The most repeated pattern in the crypto market happens to be those forgotten historical laws. Let's see what happened after the previous three halvings: In 2014, Bitcoin plummeted from $1240 to $166, a decline of 87%, wiping out many retail investors; in 2018, it crashed from nearly $20,000 to $3,124, an 84% retracement that made many doubt everything; in 2022, although not as extreme, it fell from $69,000 to $15,000, a 77% drop that was still devastating.

All three instances share a common point—about two years after the halving, the market entered its deepest correction phase. For this cycle, with the halving in 2024, following this pattern, 2026 will land right in the "danger zone." Using last year's high of $126,000 as a reference, and applying the historical average retracement of 70%-75%, the bottom range is roughly between $30,000 and $37,000.

Hearing this, some may have already started planning to cash out. But the key point hasn't been addressed yet. The background of this cycle is indeed different from previous ones—macro environment is changing, and the structure of market participants is evolving. The entry of traditional financial institutions has subtly altered Bitcoin's volatility logic. Relying solely on historical cycles to predict might be like navigating with an outdated map—your sense of direction will only get worse.

What truly matters is not guessing where the bottom will be, but understanding what specific risks and opportunities exist within this "devil's window."

BTC-0.56%

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UnluckyLemur

· 2h ago

Another 4-year cycle theory... This way of thinking should have retired long ago. --- What can historical data really represent? Even institutions have changed their rules and are still looking at the past. --- Basically, no one can truly predict; it's all armchair quarterbacking after the fact. --- Whether it drops to 30,000 in 2026 or breaks through 200,000, I just can't see through it. Staying flat and holding coins feels more secure. --- The macro environment has changed, participants have changed, yet some still insist on fitting everything into historical cycles. Isn't that like trying to force a square peg into a round hole? --- The so-called "devil window" sounds intimidating, but actually, it just means it's hard to explain clearly. --- 87%, 84%, 77%... These three corrections indeed look despairing, but will the next one really repeat? Not necessarily.

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DegenDreamer

· 2h ago

Historical data speaks, but it's not the absolute truth. Institutional entry has changed the game.

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0xSoulless

· 2h ago

Historical data? Haha, that thing is just a reference for institutions, but for us it's just a smokescreen. --- Starting to sell the bottom theory again, just a different way of saying it this time. --- 30,000 to 37,000? I bet the person writing articles with five bucks already has a dollar-cost averaging plan. --- Traditional finance entering the market and changing the rules? About time, so we don't get washed out so thoroughly. --- "Risks and opportunities," just listen, when it really comes down to it, who the hell can stay rational. --- The cycle theory is dead, but we're still alive... The logic of cutting leeks is never outdated.

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MeaninglessGwei

· 2h ago

The cycle theory is no longer very useful now; institutional entry has changed the entire game rules. --- Historical data looks good, but the market environment has completely changed. Don't copy blindly. --- Instead of blindly clearing out, it's better to understand how much of a pullback you can withstand. --- Who was bottom-fishing during that 126,000 last December? Now, fearing a drop to 30,000 is a bit funny. --- In 2026, I bet institutions won't let it fall that badly; this time is different. --- Really, Bitcoin is now supported by ETFs, so the trend has long been more than just technical analysis. --- If you can't guess the bottom, don't try; it's better to learn risk management. --- The macro environment is the main factor; the cycle theory should be put to rest. --- Historical pullbacks are indeed frightening, but the variables introduced by traditional finance are too large. --- Still the same saying: no one knows where Bitcoin will be in 2026; the most realistic approach is to focus on risk control.

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