#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes are out, and the core disagreement remains the same old issue: inflation vs employment, which one is more important.

From a data perspective, most officials support continued rate cuts, but opinions differ on timing and magnitude. The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, and the CPI increase was below expectations. Both signals seem to support rate cuts. However, the minutes explicitly state—some officials advocate waiting for more data before making a decision, and the probability of maintaining the current rate at the January meeting is increasing.

The key here is that policy expectation swings will directly affect on-chain fund flows. When easing expectations strengthen, they are often accompanied by capital inflows into risk assets; but the existence of disagreements means that uncertainty premiums may be re-priced. Recent whale wallet movements and large contract position changes are worth monitoring continuously, especially before the Federal Reserve's signals become clearer.

The takeaway for strategy judgment is: do not over-interpret a single signal, wait for the next round of data confirmation, as market pricing power may still be within a fluctuating range.