Bitcoin returns to $95,000 as politics weigh on negotiations

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin Today: BTC Returns to US$ 95,000 as Politics Weighs on Trading Original Link: Bitcoin has returned to the US$ 95,000 range this Friday, after a rally the day before that pushed its price above US$ 97,000. Down 1.5% on the day, the cryptocurrency is trading at US$ 95,401, according to market data.

Politics Shaping the Markets

Experts assess that Bitcoin is entering a new regime, in which political announcements move markets more than internal metrics. This has begun to undermine the relevance of BTC’s four-year cycle.

While stocks rose in 2025, Bitcoin lagged behind, indicating a market increasingly driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite.

Within the traditional four-year model, early 2026 would typically mark a late-cycle or post-peak phase. However, price movements suggest investors are delaying this transition, with political signals exerting greater influence than the halving-based cycle.

“Bitcoin reacts in advance when markets expect a near-QE,” said Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research. “Since Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity, it is expected to lead the market.”

Near-QE refers to liquidity support provided through fiscal or administrative channels that reduce borrowing costs, without formal asset purchases by the central bank.

Policy Paradigm

Pre-election fiscal stimuli and confusing monetary borders are driving this shift, creating what reports describe as a “financial repression” scenario.

Tariffs and pressure on monetary authorities to cut interest rates, along with other political interventions, have increasingly blurred the lines between fiscal, trade, and monetary policy.

As a result, policy has shifted toward suppressing borrowing costs and managing financial conditions through fiscal expansion and administrative actions, rather than conventional monetary tightening.

“Overall, the combination of fiscal dominance and financial repression creates a structurally favorable environment for digital assets,” say analysts. “Expansionary fiscal policy, coupled with depressed real yields, weakens the traditional sovereign debt dynamics, while distortions in regulated credit markets increase the appeal of alternative financial pathways.”

In other words, high government spending and low interest rates imposed by policies are eroding the appeal of bonds and bank credit, prompting investors to seek alternatives like cryptocurrencies.

Governments are advancing with multi-trillion-dollar spending measures, while high public debt is increasingly seen as a factor restricting central bank action and increasing the risk of a near-QE implemented through administrative channels.

What’s Next?

Political forces are likely to play a key role in shaping Bitcoin’s landscape in 2026, working alongside sustained institutional demand patterns.

With proposals for crypto market structure emerging as a central factor for prices and overshadowing traditional on-chain signals, the main short-term catalyst is regulatory.

“The crypto industry lobby has a war chest exceeding US$ 100 million, and a legislative election is approaching, so there are strong incentives for lawmakers to reach a legislative outcome favorable to the sector,” say analysts.

While institutional demand for spot ETFs continues to be a structural support, policy developments will dictate institutional thinking and, consequently, demand.

“The next 12 months are a critical window. If these laws are not aligned with the liquidity expansion cycle, their impact will be limited.”