#美联储货币政策 Seeing the list of catalysts for early 2026, my first reaction is not excitement but caution. Federal Reserve chair nominations, Supreme Court tariff rulings, amendments to the Clarity Act, FOMC meetings... these are all events that can trigger significant market volatility, but the issue is—institutions have already been positioning themselves.

Remember last year's "tax loss selling narrative"? Many thought it was genuine demand, only to realize later that it was institutions shaking out positions. Now, the situation is similar: large-scale options expirations, accumulation of bearish positions, traders waiting to enter on January 1st with a "zeroed out" stance. The timing is too coincidental.

My advice is straightforward—don't panic and start making reckless moves just because these macro events are approaching. Usually, the period before such major catalysts are announced is the most dangerous, because the big players already know what the outcome will be. Instead of chasing news, focus on your own positions, ensure the fundamentals of your projects haven't changed, and either hold steady or stay on the sidelines.

Final words: those who survive long on-chain are not necessarily those who predicted correctly many times, but those who didn't become greedy when it's time to protect themselves. The calm before this wave of catalysts is exactly the test of your mindset.