ONDO's recent performance is a paradox—on one hand, the tokenization of real assets is rapidly expanding, while on the other hand, it faces a massive token unlock in mid-January. How this supply-side pressure will impact the price has become a focal point for the market.

Let's start with the good news. The total value locked (TVL) in Ondo Finance has surpassed $2 billion, mainly driven by the explosive growth of its US Treasury bond tokenization fund. This figure clearly indicates that Ondo has secured a significant position within the entire RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization sector. Additionally, recent collaborations with Felix have expanded its spot stock trading capabilities, with Ondo Global Markets now offering over 100 US stocks. This product line enrichment paves the way for future growth.

However, from a technical perspective, the situation becomes more complex. Although the RSI indicator has rebounded from extreme oversold levels and the MACD shows signs of a bullish crossover, signaling a short-term rebound, the price of ONDO remains below key EMA moving averages (7-day, 25-day, 99-day) and has broken through the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a clearly weak overall pattern.

The biggest hidden risk stems from token supply. On January 18, the project plans to release 1.94 billion ONDO tokens, worth approximately $770 million, accounting for over 57% of the circulating supply. In other words, nearly 60% of the liquid tokens will flood the market at once—such a large unlock has obvious implications for the price. More concerning are on-chain data movements: in the past few minutes, 3 million tokens have left project-related addresses and moved to exchanges, and earlier, there was a large transfer of 25 million tokens. These signs suggest that a potential large-scale sell-off is already brewing.

Overall, ONDO is at a critical balancing point. The growth of the RWA ecosystem is a long-term positive, but short-term unlocks and market sentiment could cause significant volatility. Investors should carefully weigh this long-term optimism against the imminent unlock event.