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Bitcoin appears to be replicating the market cycle framework that Jesse Livermore, the pioneering day trader, documented decades ago. His timeless observations on price movement reveal three distinct phases that still govern how assets trade today.
First comes the accumulation phase—this is when informed capital quietly builds positions while the broader market remains indifferent or pessimistic. Smart money operates in the shadows, no headlines, just methodical buying at depressed levels. The masses sleep, unaware of what's unfolding.
Then the breakout arrives. Price escapes the consolidation range with conviction. But here's the psychological twist: even as Bitcoin breaks higher, disbelief persists. Most traders remain skeptical, thinking it's another false move. This disconnect between price action and sentiment is precisely what fuels the next leg.
Finally comes the vertical phase—where conviction shifts. Skeptics capitulate, FOMO kicks in, and momentum accelerates sharply. What started as quiet accumulation transforms into visible, sometimes dramatic upward movement.
The pattern repeats because human psychology doesn't change. Fear drives the lows, disbelief delays the highs, and greed completes the cycle. Bitcoin's current price action suggests we may be witnessing which chapter of this framework is playing out right now.