Ethereum now looks like it might fall, but that's not necessarily the case. My conclusion is: false breakdown, true breakout.

The rise and fall in the crypto world is like the natural order of the Dao—it's about timing, geography, and harmony among people. Timing is a matter of opportunity—sometimes the market doesn't push upward because it's waiting, waiting for the moving averages to align before making a move. Geography depends on whether you're standing in the right position now, where the support levels are below, and how far away they are. The harmony among people is the subtle fluctuation of emotions in short-term trading—skilled retail investors rely on this to make a living.

Bitcoin's current performance is quite interesting. When it retraced to the moving average, it was supported by the previous high points and didn't continue to crash. Looking at the short-term candlestick patterns, it has already formed higher highs and higher lows—an HH, HL rhythm—higher highs and higher lows. This is a signal indicating that the bears no longer have bargaining power.

So instead of worrying about whether it will break below, it's better to see how long this support can hold. Time will give the answer.