Recently, there is a new trend in the market worth paying attention to. On January 17th, CME's Federal Reserve Watch data showed that traders are beginning to adjust their expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. The reason is that Trump revealed he might not allow current Federal Reserve Chair Powell to serve another term, and is considering other candidates.

Looking at the specific data, the situation by the end of 2026 is as follows: the probability of no rate cuts at all has decreased to 11.8%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 30.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 32.1%. In other words, the market's expectations for room to cut rates are shrinking.

When talking about current National Economic Council Chair Harret, Trump said, "Let's see if he stays in his current position." This sentence actually sends a signal — he probably has other considerations for the next Fed chair. This kind of personnel uncertainty directly affects the market's judgment of future monetary policy. The direction of Fed policy often spills over into cryptocurrency asset pricing, which is closely watched by many traders.