2026-01-16 17:30:23

Recent market dynamics have undergone significant changes. After January 17, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve Chairperson candidate are being reshuffled—Hassett's chances have dropped from a tie to just 15%, while Waugh has risen steadily to over 60%, becoming the overwhelming front-runner.

Data from the prediction market Polymarket reflects the market's true sentiment. Why did Waugh suddenly surge to the top? The key lies in his stance and policy proposals. Although he is hawkish, the market perceives him as supporting rate cuts and balance sheet reduction—what this means for the current financial environment is self-evident.

Even more interesting is Waugh's understanding of inflation. He believes the root cause of inflation stems from the Federal Reserve's own policy orientation, rather than supply chain issues or geopolitical risks. Based on this judgment, he is quite optimistic about the US economic outlook, especially bullish on the productivity surge that AI and deregulation could bring. This viewpoint is quite attractive in the current market environment.

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GasFeeLover

· 21m ago

Vosh's move this time is really brilliant, jumping from 15% directly to 60%. The market's intuition is truly sharp... It seems that the narrative of lowering interest rates + AI regulation has really hit everyone's pain points.

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RektRecorder

· 16h ago

Is Wosh really that powerful? A 60%+ odds feels a bit excessive... Could it be that the market is collectively betting on interest rate cuts?

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ForumLurker

· 16h ago

Vosh's move this time is truly clever—cutting interest rates + deregulation + AI. This combination really works on the market... However, I still have some doubts: is inflation really just the Federal Reserve's own doing?

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CryptoGoldmine

· 16h ago

Vosh's recent moves are indeed interesting. Polymarket's data can reflect the market's true expectations, soaring from 15% directly to over 60%. The underlying logic behind this is worth analyzing. The combination of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction impacts liquidity—well, the cost of computing power will see a significant improvement, and institutions that positioned early are now in a good mood. I'm optimistic about AI deregulation. Once the cycle of technological iteration's benefits opens up, the associated industry efficiency improvements will be very noticeable. However, the most critical factor is the speed of policy implementation. Optimistic expectations alone won't last long; data will speak for itself.

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MaticHoleFiller

· 16h ago

Vosh's recent moves truly captured the market's psychology—interest rate cuts + deregulation + AI. Who wouldn't love this combination?

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CodeAuditQueen

· 16h ago

Polymarket's data changes... To put it simply, the market is looking for new "vulnerabilities." Can Wash's logic hold up? I need to check if there's an issue with the underlying design.

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