Is the Federal Reserve personnel chess game suddenly taking a turn? The "remaining directors" could become the biggest variable!

A controversy over an investigation into Powell not only failed to put him on the defensive but also triggered a sharp reversal in market expectations—his probability of leaving office in May plummeted from a high of 70% to less than 50%, and the expectation of a transition by the end of the year is nearly shattered. Even more unexpectedly, the public support rate for the hawkish figure Waller has surpassed that of the White House preferred candidate, completely throwing the Federal Reserve's reshuffle game off its preset track.

Interestingly, even if Powell steps down as Chair, he can still serve as a director until 2028, which means he might transform into a "permanent helmsman of the Federal Reserve," continuously safeguarding monetary policy independence under the institutional shield. Political pressure actions have unexpectedly created a more resilient institutional presence that is harder to shake.

This silent contest over monetary sovereignty and administrative intervention is quietly reshaping the power balance logic in Washington. What was originally intended as a quick personnel adjustment may be evolving into a multi-year test of institutional resilience.