Recently, I've seen many friends in the community discussing the price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Some are cheering excitedly, thinking the bull market has arrived, while others are debating whether to close their positions. My view might be a bit different — this recent surge looks fierce, but essentially it's just a standard B-wave rebound, far from a true market reversal.

Why am I so confident? Mainly from three perspectives:

**First, the daily trend hasn't reversed yet.** Open the daily K-chart, and the MA5, MA10, and MA20 lines are still arranged in a bearish order, showing no effective signs of a trend reversal. Every time the price rebounds, it gets pushed down at the previous dense trading zones — a classic case of weak strength. This "weak rebound" characteristic suggests that as long as one moving average hasn't turned bullish, don't expect a trend reversal.

**Second, the on-chain data doesn't tell a positive story.** The root of this rally is actually technical correction after overselling, combined with market expectations adjustment for short-term liquidity, leading to capital inflow. But looking at the on-chain data, institutional funds haven't entered massively; instead, large sell pressure signals persist, indicating no new capital is flowing in. Without fresh blood, a rebound can't be called a bull market.

**Third, technical indicators have issued warning signals.** The RSI has bounced back from oversold territory to a high level, indicating that the short-term correction may have gone a bit too far. More importantly, the ADX indicator shows the current trend strength is still below 25, which means the upward move lacks real sustained momentum. To put it plainly, the bears are "resting," not completely giving up.

Putting these three points together, the situation is quite clear: there is indeed a short-term rebound, but this rebound is like a temporary pause for the bears, not a fundamental trend change. The medium- to long-term bearish logic remains intact, and this rally hasn't broken that.