Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Shake Markets: Analysts Warn Crypto May Become “Exit Liquidity”

A pivotal verdict is expected today—one that could reshape market sentiment. The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, and traders on the prediction platform Polymarket assign a 73% probability that the court will strike them down. At first glance, that sounds like good news. Some analysts, however, warn it could trigger a far larger problem. Macro analyst NoLimit, known for publicly calling several recent market tops and bottoms, cautions that the real risk isn’t the ruling itself—but what happens immediately afterward. “If the court overturns the tariffs, it instantly creates a massive hole in Treasury revenues,” he wrote. “Markets aren’t pricing in the chaos around refunds, emergency bond issuance, or the risk of sudden retaliatory measures.”

Refunds in the Hundreds of Billions: A Risk No One Is Pricing The United States currently collects about $350 billion per year from tariffs—up sharply from $50–$80 billion between 2016 and 2020. If the court finds the tariffs unlawful under the IEEPA, importers could be entitled to refunds. Analyst DeFi Hanzo argues the exposure goes far beyond the headline numbers:

“Trump collected over $600 billion in tariffs. If they’re ruled illegal, that money has to be returned. Add the investment losses from companies that restructured supply chains, delayed projects, or lost contracts? That bill could easily run into the trillions.” This, critics say, is the market’s blind spot—these scenarios aren’t meaningfully priced into assets.

Why Crypto Could Be Hit Too NoLimit and Hanzo converge on the same conclusion: if this unravels, crypto won’t be spared. “When this reality hits, liquidity will be pulled from everywhere at once—bonds, equities, and crypto. Everything that can be sold will be used as exit liquidity,” NoLimit warned. In plain terms, assets investors hold as speculation or hedges could quickly become sources of cash if the government needs to plug a sudden fiscal gap.

Bad Timing: The Fed Steps In Timing could make matters worse. The ruling is expected at 10:00 ET, followed just two hours later—at 12:00 ET—by speeches from three regional Fed presidents. This comes shortly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the U.S. Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into him. Former Fed chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan publicly condemned the probe as an attack on central bank independence. The convergence of a court ruling, fiscal uncertainty, and tension around the Fed creates conditions where even ostensibly positive news could provoke sharp market reactions.

What Comes After the Verdict Traders betting on a clean “tariffs removed = markets rally” outcome may be caught off guard. If the Treasury suddenly has to figure out how to refund hundreds of billions of dollars with no clear plan, liquidity stress could hit fast and across the board. That’s when the analysts’ warning may prove prescient: crypto could shift from a system hedge to a short-term casualty—assets sold not because confidence is gone, but because cash is urgently needed. Today’s decision, then, may be less about whether markets go up, and more about who is prepared for what comes next.

#TrumpTariffs , #CryptoMarkets , #Polymarket , #FederalReserve , #GlobalMarkets

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