Recently, the Middle East has been quite unstable, with frequent escalations in geopolitical tensions, and the market has found a new excuse to speculate on crude oil. As an important member of OPEC, if exports are hindered, there will definitely be noticeable changes in the supply chain, which will support oil prices.

Looking at the recent market trends, crude oil has risen for five consecutive trading days. The rebound has been somewhat beyond expectations, but don’t be fooled by the surface—fundamental supply and demand patterns have not changed. As always, oversupply remains the main theme. Oil prices have now broken above the $61.5 mark. Moving forward, we need to keep a close eye on this level, watching supply and demand dynamics and how the geopolitical situation unfolds. These are key variables affecting the future market, so let’s take it step by step.