#美联储政策与货币政策 The recent developments in the Fed chair nomination are quite interesting. Haskett dropped from a high position to 42%, while Wosh surged to 31%. This reflects the market's re-pricing of policy expectations. The key lies in the differing attitudes of potential chair candidates towards liquidity—directly impacting asset pricing logic.

I've been observing several macro strategy traders, and recently their position adjustments have noticeably accelerated. One aggressive trader is betting on hawkish expectations if Wosh takes office, directly increasing short positions; another more conservative trader is waiting for clear signals, maintaining a relatively balanced allocation. Both approaches have their pros and cons—aggressive traders seize the rhythm but face higher volatility risk, while conservative traders miss some gains but stay in the game to see how this political play unfolds.

In this environment of uncertainty, my advice is to layer your followings based on your risk tolerance. If your account capacity allows, you can take small positions aligned with several aggressive policy bets, while using larger positions to follow the fundamental logic of the more conservative camp—diversifying reliance on bets. Before the announcement of the candidate in January, market sentiment will continue to fluctuate, and the real turning point will be confirmed at that moment. Then you'll see who has grasped the rhythm and who has been caught off guard—this is the best material for learning from follow trades.