The market's reading on Middle East geopolitical risk suggests roughly even odds for escalation this month—but don't read too much into it. Since June 2025, the policy shifted away from direct strikes toward diplomatic channels and financial leverage. That's the longer trend to watch. The January scenarios people are pricing in? I'm skeptical. If something does break, the real pressure points likely show up deeper into 2026, not in the next couple weeks. The narrative keeps jumping between war-risk premiums and risk-off positioning, but historically these edge-of-the-cliff moments fizzle more often than they detonate.