The Fed's independence storm escalates, can BTC hold the key support?

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, the Federal Reserve has been the hottest topic. Trump has once again criticized Powell, accusing him of “incompetence or corruption,” just as the Department of Justice is investigating the Fed’s headquarters renovation case. This wave of public opinion pressure has directly shifted the power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve from behind the scenes to the forefront. The independence of the central bank has suddenly become the focus of the entire market.

Interestingly, the financial market’s pricing response to rate cuts has not been intense. Although inflation data has indeed eased, from the perspective of interest rate futures, everyone generally believes that the Fed won’t move until at least mid-year, and it won’t cut rates many times throughout the year. This indicates that investors are well aware: institutional stability and anchored inflation expectations are more important than any political statements.

More importantly, central banks in Europe, the UK, and Canada have come out to support the Fed, publicly backing its policy independence. Major institutions on Wall Street are also sounding the alarm—if political forces truly interfere with monetary policy, inflation expectations will rise again, long-term interest rates will soar, and bonds and risk assets will suffer accordingly.

From the perspective of the crypto market, this is not just personnel disputes but a market re-evaluating confidence in the entire monetary system. Currently, there are two core macro variables: how long can high interest rates be maintained, and how much credibility do policymakers still have. In the short term, BTC needs to watch the key support line at 91031, with the main resistance at 97237 above. If doubts about central bank independence continue to spread, the volatility of the dollar and real interest rates will increase, amplifying fluctuations in crypto assets; conversely, once the market confirms that monetary policy is not politically influenced, BTC still has the opportunity to resume its upward trend after completing its structural adjustment. During this period, closely monitoring how macro stories unfold is crucial, as it directly impacts the entire market’s risk appetite.