Arthur Hayes' new quarterly core strategy revealed: Why choose MSTR and Metaplanet to go long on BTC

Arthur Hayes recently posted on X revealing his most core trading strategy for this quarter: going long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (3350), using these two assets as leveraged tools to bet on Bitcoin’s return to an upward trend. This strategic choice reflects this crypto influencer’s market judgment and investment logic.

Why choose these two assets

What do MSTR and Metaplanet have in common? Both are publicly traded companies highly correlated with Bitcoin. MicroStrategy is known for its large Bitcoin reserves and has become the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. Metaplanet is a Japanese listed company whose core strategy also involves actively allocating Bitcoin assets. The stock prices of these two companies are highly correlated with Bitcoin’s price, but their volatility is often greater, making them ideal leveraged bets on BTC.

Leverage Effect Logic

Choosing MSTR and Metaplanet instead of directly going long on BTC hinges on leverage amplification. When Bitcoin rises, the stock prices of these two companies typically increase even more; conversely, the same applies when Bitcoin falls. For institutional investors like Hayes, this leverage effect allows for higher returns while maintaining a bullish outlook on BTC’s long-term trend. This is why he refers to them as “leveraged assets betting on BTC’s rebound.”

Hayes’s Investment Philosophy Background

According to the latest news, Hayes has made multiple strategic investments through his Maelstrom Fund, including River (a blockchain abstraction project) and Neuramint (a Web3 AI agent platform). These investment choices reflect Hayes’s focus on macroeconomic conditions and policy trends. In his view, macro factors such as oil prices, exchange rates, and central bank policies directly influence liquidity release, which in turn drives crypto asset prices. Going long on MSTR and Metaplanet this quarter is essentially a clear bet on the upcoming liquidity environment and Bitcoin’s upward movement.

Significance of Market Signals

As the founder of BitMEX and a seasoned crypto investor, Hayes’s trading strategies often reflect institutional perspectives. His public announcement of this quarter’s core strategy indicates confidence in Bitcoin’s recent rebound. It also suggests that Hayes considers this a relatively suitable entry point—using leveraged assets to participate in the BTC rally.

Notably, Hayes is about to publish a new article titled “Frowny Cloud,” which may further elaborate on his market views and strategic logic. Based on past experience, Hayes’s long-form articles usually involve macro analysis, policy interpretation, and in-depth content, potentially providing more comprehensive theoretical support for this trading strategy.

Summary

Arthur Hayes’s choice of MSTR and Metaplanet as his core trading strategy this quarter reflects two key judgments: first, optimism about Bitcoin’s short-term rebound; second, the use of leveraged tools to amplify gains. This strategic choice signals that institutional investors are participating in the BTC rally by allocating highly correlated assets. For ordinary investors, it serves more as an observation signal—indicating how major market players are positioning themselves—rather than direct investment advice. Watching Hayes’s upcoming articles may offer further insights into the logic behind this strategy.