Tonight, the US December CPI data will be released, and here are some possible scenarios.

If CPI is significantly below expectations, then expectations of rate cuts will spike, and gold will definitely surge quickly. If it's slightly lower, gold prices are likely to remain relatively strong, gradually rising amid volatility. If it meets expectations exactly, the market might stay on the sidelines, with gold repeatedly consolidating at high levels, waiting for the next signal.

The most concerning scenario is CPI above expectations, especially if core inflation is still rebounding. In this case, real interest rates will rise, exerting downward pressure on gold, leading to a short-term decline. But what's really interesting is that if this high interest rate environment is coupled with sticky inflation, once the market starts worrying about stagflation, gold may actually attract more safe-haven funds, potentially leading to stronger medium-term buying support.