On January 13th, the tension between the US political circle and the central bank suddenly intensified. The Trump administration increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, while simultaneously, major global central banks suddenly voiced support for Powell—this scene resembles a face-off on the monetary policy arena, pitting "political demands" against "central bank independence." The uncertainty in financial markets has also deepened, with the mystery surrounding policy expectations growing more intense.

In fact, what the Trump administration wants is clear: to use political pressure to encourage the Fed to loosen monetary policy, leveraging more abundant liquidity to boost economic growth, thereby creating more favorable conditions for its political agenda. The logic is straightforward, and the path is direct.

But why are global central banks stepping up to support Powell? Because everyone is safeguarding the independence of monetary policy—this is the cornerstone of global financial stability. If the Fed were truly led astray by political forces and deviated from its inflation targets, the entire framework of global monetary policy could start to wobble. Clearly, this is not a situation any central bank in the world wants to see. The Bank for International Settlements even plans to lead in issuing a joint statement, officially pushing this "defense of independence" onto the stage, effectively erecting a "firewall" against political interference.

The current question is, the market simply cannot figure out what the Fed will ultimately do.

If Powell finally cannot withstand the pressure and the Fed indeed adopts more aggressive rate cuts, the dollar might weaken, and gold could have the opportunity to rise on the back of easing expectations. Assets like Bitcoin, which have both safe-haven and risk attributes, would also benefit.

Conversely, if Powell insists on maintaining independence and continues to base policy decisions on CPI and inflation data, market expectations for easing will be cooled by reality. The dollar might remain strong, and assets expecting easing will need to reassess their outlook.

This inherent uncertainty itself becomes the biggest challenge facing investors.