CPI will be released tonight, strengthening the expectation of dollar depreciation, and the crypto market is迎来 new opportunities?

U.S. December CPI data will be released tonight at 21:30, and the market has already begun pricing in the reaction to this key economic indicator. Shaun Osbon, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, recently pointed out that regardless of the specific data, it will reinforce the market’s overall perception of a downward trend for the dollar. What this means for crypto assets that rely on the dollar’s movement is a critical question at the moment.

CPI Data Expectations Overview

Major financial institutions have released their forecasts for U.S. December CPI, showing some divergence but an overall clear trend:

Most mainstream institutions (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, HSBC, etc.) forecast an annual rate of +2.7%, with some predicting slightly lower (Deutsche Bank +2.5%) or higher (DBS Bank +2.9%). For the monthly rate, the majority expect +0.3%, with only Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada predicting +0.2%.

Why the Dollar Will Continue to Weaken

Significance of Inflation Data Signals

Scotiabank’s view hits the key point: whether the CPI data exceeds expectations or not, it will reinforce the dollar’s depreciation trend. The logic behind this is that the market’s current outlook on the dollar has already formed a “downward trend” consensus.

According to the latest news, the dollar already experienced a significant decline yesterday (January 12). In this context, tonight’s CPI data will be used by the market to verify or reinforce this trend, rather than change its direction. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it will be interpreted as moderate and controllable inflation, suggesting the Fed may not be overly hawkish, which puts pressure on the dollar. If the data exceeds expectations, it might support the dollar in the short term, but considering the dollar’s existing downside momentum, the upside potential will be limited.

Expert Caution

Shaun Osbon emphasized “a certain degree of caution should still be maintained regarding this data release,” and also pointed out that “the dollar’s decline may not be excessively amplified.” This indicates that although the downward trend for the dollar is already a consensus, a single data release is unlikely to trigger drastic volatility. In other words, it’s a gradual process of confirming the trend rather than a one-time reversal.

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

A weakening dollar generally benefits crypto assets mainly because:

• A depreciating dollar lowers real yields, reducing the attractiveness of holding USD
• Investors may seek alternative assets to preserve purchasing power, with crypto gaining attention as an emerging asset class
• Global liquidity conditions improve, typically benefiting risk assets

However, it’s important to note that this impact is usually medium-term. In the short term, other factors such as Fed policy signals, geopolitical risks, etc., should also be monitored.

Follow-up Focus

• Data Release Time: Tonight at 21:30, the market will react immediately
• Next Fed Move: CPI data will influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps
• Dollar Index Trend: Focus on whether it continues to decline or rebounds
• Crypto Asset Performance: Observe whether main cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum follow the dollar’s weakness and rise

Summary

Tonight’s CPI release is an important milestone, but what’s more critical is that the market has already formed a consensus on the dollar’s downward trend. Regardless of the specific data, it may be used to reinforce this impression. This creates a relatively favorable macro environment for crypto assets. However, investors should remain rational—single data points won’t change the overall trend. The key is to watch the Fed’s policy signals and the global economic situation. Stay attentive but avoid overreacting.