#密码资产动态追踪 The upcoming US CPI data release—whether the Nasdaq can continue its upward trajectory depends entirely on this report.

It seems simple, but the logical chain behind it is actually quite complex. Inflation data → Federal Reserve interest rate expectations → stock market trends, all interconnected. The most sensitive to interest rate changes are the tech stocks, primarily represented by the Nasdaq.

Currently, the market is focusing on two figures: the overall CPI and the core CPI (which is more critical because it excludes the noise from food and energy). Both are expected to be around 2.7%.

In comparison, last month’s core CPI was 2.6%, which surprised the market and suggested that inflation was truly cooling down. If this figure can continue to decline this time, the situation will be different.

Once the data is released, the Nasdaq is likely to face three possible scenarios—

**Scenario 1: Core CPI drops below 2.6%**

This would be a real positive signal. The market would strongly bet that the Fed will accelerate and cut rates earlier. Once a low-interest-rate environment is established, the valuation ceiling for tech stocks can be pushed higher, and the Nasdaq would rally directly. This is the most optimistic scenario.

**Scenario 2: Core CPI stays around the 2.7% expectation**

Neither surprising nor alarming, the lack of inflation rebound indicates that the Fed’s policy direction is on track. In the short term, market volatility might increase as the news is digested. But at this point, major banks like JPMorgan will take the lead with their earnings reports, and the market will follow their outlook on the economic fundamentals.

**Scenario 3: Core CPI jumps to 2.8% or higher**

This would be a blow. Concerns about sticky inflation would resurface, and the market would start to anticipate that the Fed might hold steady or even delay rate cuts. High interest rates would continue to suppress the valuation space for growth tech stocks. The Nasdaq is very likely to pull back.

So, tonight’s data will be a re-evaluation of the pricing of all risk assets.