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While the short-term trend for Ether may appear bearish, suggesting a potential breakdown from the descending triangle, there are several factors that could support a contrary view:
1. Oversold Conditions: The narrowing Bollinger Bands can also indicate a volatility squeeze, often preceding a breakout—potentially upward. If price consolidates and fails to break lower convincingly, a reversal could follow.
2. MACD Divergence Risk: While MACD shows strong short positioning, an emerging bullish divergence or a flattening histogram could hint at waning bearish momentum.
3. Support Testing: The area around 2580–2600 has previously acted as support. If it holds, this could become a base for a short-term bounce.
4. Market Sentiment and News: Broader market conditions or news (e.g., ETF approval, macro shifts) can quickly flip sentiment, and short squeezes are common in compressed zones like this.
Counter Strategy: Consider a potential rebound if 2580 holds. A long position near support with a tight stop could capture a bounce toward 2650–2680.
In conclusion, while bearish momentum dominates now, the risk-reward could favor contrarian setups if signs of support confirmation or divergence emerge.