Prediction Markets Explained: Mechanism Design, Trading Logic, and On-Chain Applications
Prediction markets are rapidly emerging as one of the fastest-growing and most institutionally watched application areas in Web3. As real-world events become increasingly intertwined with on-chain assets, market participants are turning to prices to capture “probability consensus” ahead of time. This evolution positions prediction markets as a form of financial infrastructure that reflects sentiment, decision-making, and expectations about the future. This course will help you understand why prediction markets can serve as “price oracles for the real world,” why traditional polling and survey methods are losing effectiveness, and how on-chain prediction markets leverage transparent mechanisms, decentralized settlement, and real-time data flows to construct a credible probability system for future events.
About the Course
Prediction Markets: A Complete System Course—Mechanisms, Applications, and the On-Chain Future is a structured program designed for intermediate learners. It provides a clear yet sufficiently deep learning path, spanning conceptual foundations, mechanism design, technical principles, real-world applications, and future trends. The course is organized around five core modules that cover the full lifecycle of prediction markets: event definition, market mechanisms, oracle systems, trading strategies, and ecosystem evolution. Through systematic explanations, on-chain case studies, and comparative mechanism analysis, you will gain a comprehensive understanding of how prediction markets operate, why they are experiencing a breakout in 2024–2025, and how they are becoming deeply coupled with on-chain derivatives, macro finance, and social sentiment.
What You Will Learn
- Understand the fundamental principles and 30-year evolution of prediction markets, and why “price equals probability”
- Master mainstream prediction market mechanism designs, including AMMs, order books, and LMSR models, along with their risks, strengths, and weaknesses
- Learn the technical foundations of on-chain prediction markets, including event definition, oracles, arbitration, and settlement systems
- Interpret prediction market price signals and apply them to sentiment analysis, risk hedging, and on-chain trading
- Understand core applications of event markets in politics, macroeconomics, technology, and crypto-native scenarios
- Explore future trends such as EventFi, AI-driven prediction, and ZK-powered privacy-preserving prediction markets, and identify structural opportunities in the sector
Course Content
Pre-Course Information
Supported Languages
Suitable For
Instructors
Gate Learn
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