March 16 news: Prediction market Polymarket shows that bets against "U.S. military entering Iran before April" have surged notably, with someone investing $83,600 successfully raising the probability to 73%. Trump plans to establish an international coalition to ensure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, however Gulf states deny providing military operation support. Although Iran has taken attack actions against Israel and U.S. military bases, the U.S. response remains focused on maintaining strait navigation and other aspects.

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, with transit through the Strait of Hormuz stalled, and analysts see no signs of de-escalation.