Titik kritis pengawasan kriptografi: Analisis periode jendela Undang-Undang CLARITY bulan Mei dan risiko penundaan hingga 2030

16 April, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission held a CLARITY bill roundtable in Washington, bringing together regulators and industry representatives for an open discussion on digital asset market structure. On the same day, JPMorgan released a research report stating that legislative negotiations are nearing completion, with contentious issues reduced from about ten to 2-3 core questions. This years-long legislative effort on crypto regulatory framework is entering a historic sprint phase.

Why has the pace of U.S. crypto regulation legislation suddenly accelerated

On April 13, 2026, the U.S. Senate ended its Easter recess and resumed full session, marking the final sprint for the CLARITY bill’s legislative process. JPMorgan’s research report on April 16 indicated that legislative negotiations are close to completion, with disputes reduced from over ten to 2-3 key issues. Senate staff said the draft is “very close” to reaching consensus.

The core driver behind the accelerated legislative process is the political clock of midterm elections. With the November 2026 midterms approaching, if the Democrats regain control of the House, crypto legislation may lose priority. Galaxy Research estimates that only 18 working weeks remain before the midterm recess in October, leaving a very limited time window.

How the SEC and CFTC jurisdictional division reshapes digital asset classification

The core goal of the CLARITY bill is to end the long-standing jurisdictional dispute between the SEC and CFTC. The bill clearly classifies digital assets into three categories: digital commodities, investment contract assets, and licensed payment stablecoins.

The CFTC gains exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodities, including anti-fraud enforcement and supervision of exchanges and brokers. The SEC retains regulatory authority over investment contract assets during the issuance phase, covering registration and reporting requirements. According to the revised draft, for a system to be recognized as a “digital commodity” under CFTC jurisdiction, it must demonstrate that the total voting rights held by the issuer and related parties in the past 12 months do not exceed 20%.

This classification framework aims to provide industry participants with predictable compliance pathways, ending current enforcement uncertainties.

How the debate over stablecoin yields is heading towards compromise

The issue of stablecoin yields was a key obstacle that delayed the CLARITY bill for nearly a year. The banking sector strongly opposed crypto platforms offering stablecoin yields, fearing systemic deposit outflows.

After multiple rounds of negotiations, a compromise plan centered around Senator Thom Tillis has taken shape. The core logic is to separate “passive yields” from “activity rewards”: prohibiting interest payments on mere stablecoin holdings, but explicitly allowing activity incentives and rewards linked to payment behavior and platform use. JPMorgan’s report notes that the debate over stablecoin rewards is now “progressing smoothly.”

White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt said the stablecoin yield compromise “seems to be holding steady,” calling it a “necessity” to unlock other obstacles. An analysis report released by the White House Economic Advisory Council on April 8 estimated that banning passive yields on stablecoins would only increase U.S. bank loans by about $2.1 billion and cause consumers to lose about $800 million annually in returns. This empirical analysis weakens the arguments of banking opponents at the policy level.

What regulatory signals did the SEC roundtable reveal

The SEC’s roundtable on April 16 in Washington regarding the CLARITY bill was not a voting or markup session but a signal of regulatory stance before congressional action. The committee members hosting the meeting are the same officials responsible for implementing the bill once passed.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins publicly stated that the SEC and CFTC are ready operationally, and once Congress passes the bill, it can be implemented immediately. This signals that regulatory disagreements have largely been bridged, with legislative hurdles mainly at the political level in Congress.

Why is there a risk that the legislative timeline could be missed and pushed to 2030

The bill faces a critical deadline at the end of May. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott had not announced specific review or revision dates as of April 15, citing three unresolved issues: disputes over stablecoin incentives between banks and crypto firms, unresolved DeFi provisions, and the need to coordinate all Republican committee members.

Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that if Congress misses the May window, it could mean waiting until 2030 for another legislative opportunity. If the bill cannot enter full Senate voting by May, due to political factors of the midterm elections, the legislation is likely to be shelved until the remaining 2026 period.

How market pricing for the likelihood of CLARITY bill passage has changed

Prediction market Polymarket currently prices the probability of the CLARITY bill passing in 2026 at 55%-65%, up 11 percentage points from earlier this week. The probability peaked at 82% earlier this year, then retreated, but has recently risen again due to progress in negotiations.

Expectations among different market participants vary. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse publicly estimated the chance of the bill passing before the end of April at about 80%-90%. The market’s expectation of convergence reflects confidence restored by negotiation progress.

What legislative steps remain before the CLARITY bill becomes law

Before the bill is officially signed into law, the following steps must be completed sequentially: review and revision by the Banking Committee, 60-vote approval by the full Senate, coordination with the Agriculture Committee version, coordination with the House version from July 2025, and final submission for presidential signature. Currently, the bill is not on the official agenda of the Senate Banking Committee’s week of April 20, and revision dates are yet to be determined.

JPMorgan’s report quotes a policy advisor saying “there is no perfect bill,” indicating all stakeholders recognize the need for compromise. Senator Tillis expressed openness to further amendments, and although banks have opposed the stablecoin reward draft, a bipartisan compromise is emerging.

How the regulatory framework’s implementation will reshape the industry landscape

If the CLARITY bill is ultimately enacted, it will provide the first comprehensive regulatory framework for integrating digital assets into the U.S. financial system. This framework will offer clear compliance pathways for stablecoin issuers, DeFi protocols, and crypto exchanges, eliminating current enforcement uncertainties. Standard Chartered estimates that without a cap on yields, up to $500 billion in deposits could be transferred out of banks, explaining the strong resistance from banking lobbies.

For crypto exchanges, passage means the formal opening of compliant registration channels, removing the biggest uncertainty for institutional capital entry. Regulatory clarity will become a prerequisite for traditional financial institutions to enter the crypto market, rather than an ultimate constraint.

Summary

The legislative negotiations for the CLARITY bill have entered their final stage, with disputes reduced from over ten to 2-3 core issues. The jurisdictional framework between SEC and CFTC, the stablecoin passive yield ban, and the activity rewards compromise are the core institutional designs of the bill. The May legislative window and midterm election politics pose the greatest timing risks—missing this window could delay the bill until 2030. Market pricing at 55%-65% reflects cautious optimism about negotiation progress.

FAQ

Q: What are the specific regulatory requirements for stablecoins under the CLARITY bill?

Under the current compromise, the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying passive yields (interest automatically accruing on holdings), but explicitly allows activity-based incentives linked to payment behavior and platform use, such as transaction rebates, transfer incentives, and loyalty programs.

Q: How does the CLARITY bill distinguish between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction?

The bill classifies digital assets into three categories: digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction; investment contract assets under SEC during issuance and converting to digital commodities after resale in secondary markets; and licensed payment stablecoins under banking regulators.

Q: If the bill fails to pass in 2026, when is the next opportunity?

Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that missing the May legislative window could mean waiting until 2030 for another chance, due to political factors of the midterm elections.

Q: What is the latest market pricing for the bill’s passage probability on Polymarket?

As of April 16, Polymarket prices the probability of the CLARITY bill passing in 2026 at about 55%-65%, up approximately 11 percentage points from earlier this week.

Q: What is the significance of the SEC roundtable?

The SEC roundtable on April 16 signals the agency’s stance before congressional legislation. SEC Chair stated that once the bill passes, SEC and CFTC are ready for immediate implementation.