#创作者冲榜 Gold Plummets $525 in a Single Week, Silver Crashes Nearly 16%, Larger Decline May Be Coming

As Middle East tensions persist and energy prices remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures resurging, potentially forcing major global central banks to pause their easing cycles and adopt a longer wait-and-see approach.

Under this influence, gold has recently suffered continuous setbacks. After breaking through the key technical level of the 50-day moving average, bearish sentiment in the market has further intensified. Multiple analysts warn that if Middle East conflicts continue to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers additional damage, gold may face further pain in the short term, with risks of potentially declining toward the lower end of the $4,000 per ounce range.

Gold Price Plunges $525, Breaks Key Technical Level, Silver Crashes Nearly 16%

As the Middle East war shows no signs of ending soon, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to prepare for further market declines. The reason is that sustained energy price increases are reigniting inflationary threats, which may force major global central banks to end their original easing paths and instead adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance.

The gold market experienced significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices broke through the 50-day moving average slightly below $5,000 per ounce, the market chart structure clearly deteriorated. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong told Kitco News that Wednesday's breakdown and subsequent sustained selling have brought the gold market to a critical turning point.

He pointed out that from a price structure perspective, gold's 23% rebound from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective rally," even resembling a classic "dead cat bounce."

This suggests that gold's next phase of movement is more likely to shift toward a sustained bearish-driven decline lasting weeks. From a weekly chart perspective, gold has accumulated a weekly decline of $525.56 this week, representing a 10.47% drop—the largest single-week decline since 1983. Since the conflict began, gold's cumulative decline has exceeded 14%. Recent market data shows gold prices briefly broke below $4,500, while the year's high reached above $5,600.

By comparison, silver's decline has been even more severe. This week silver is set to accumulate a decline of 15.67%, marking the largest drop since January when prices peaked and retreated this year. Spot silver closed at $67.889 per ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East Situation and the Strait of Hormuz Become Key Variables for Gold's Next Move

Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction almost entirely depends on how Middle East situations evolve and whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore normal passage, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in his latest report that while the market awaits further clarification of the Iran war, he expects gold prices may fluctuate in the $4,600-$4,700 range in the short term, but simultaneously warns that downside risks are continuously increasing. He noted that if energy assets suffer further damage and the conflict extends, the final outcome could be gold prices declining toward the lower end of the $4,000 per ounce range. The reason is that in such scenarios, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to resume rate hikes due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he also emphasized that this doesn't mean gold's long-term trend would turn permanently weaker. If energy infrastructure damage remains limited and oil prices can quickly return to pre-war levels, major central banks' purchase interest in gold could re-emerge, pushing gold prices back to running above $5,000 per ounce in the long term.

Why Doesn't Gold Behave Like a Safe-Haven Asset Amid War?

Despite gold facing clear headwinds recently, multiple analysts remain optimistic about its medium to long-term prospects. Commodities Strategy Chief Ole Hansen stated that the core logic driving investors' gold purchases at the beginning of the year hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also noted that current markets need to first experience a round of sentiment and position correction. In other words, investors need to first "cool down from their infatuation," after which they may rekindle their enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst phase has passed before they'll have greater confidence to re-enter the market. Analysts believe the main reason gold hasn't displayed traditional safe-haven strength in the war environment is the re-inflation threat brought by rising energy prices.

The current market focus has shifted from geopolitical conflict itself to how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.

Central Banks Widely Adopt Wait-and-See Stance, Yet Markets Have Rapidly Withdrawn Rate-Cut Bets!

Over the past week, all major global central banks maintained interest rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode" to observe the actual impact of the war on inflation expectations. Haworth noted that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will more clearly see whether energy shocks will substantively affect business decisions and price behavior.

However, the market is clearly less patient. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Commerzbank Head of Currency and Commodities Research Thu Lan Nguyen stated that in the United States, even a single complete rate cut hasn't been fully priced in by year-end. Whereas at the end of February, markets generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.5 times. She noted that following the recent Federal Reserve meeting, rate-cut expectations have been further weakened, primarily because Federal Reserve Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and explicitly stated that if future signals show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing won't be considered.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and push up long-term inflation expectations, gold prices will likely continue to face downward pressure.

Gold's Long-Term Bull Market May Not Have Ended, But Short-Term Consolidation Confirmation Is More Needed

Although the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance typically suppresses gold by pushing up bond yields and the dollar, some analysts believe medium-to-long-term opportunities for gold haven't disappeared. Senior Market Analyst Michael Brown stated that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and actually continue tightening policy in a recessionary environment, this itself may constitute a serious policy error. He noted that monetary policy's effectiveness against supply-driven inflation is inherently limited, with central banks often only able to slow economic growth by suppressing demand.

Therefore, given the high uncertainty surrounding the duration and economic impact of the Iran conflict, central banks adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. However, if major central banks ultimately commit the policy error of "tightening during recession," gold may still perform well over longer time horizons, as investors will then seek tools to hedge against economic downside risks.

Brown stated that he doesn't believe gold's bull market has ended, but at the current stage, markets need to first experience a sufficient consolidation phase before having stronger reasons to strengthen confidence in "buying the dips."