The Federal Reserve's Kashkari menanggapi tekanan politik: Tidak akan menurunkan suku bunga sementara pada Januari, tetapi independensinya tidak dapat dikompromikan

The Federal Reserve’s internal response to political pressure is beginning to become clearer. Kashkari openly stated in an interview that the pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve “is actually a monetary policy issue,” and also expressed that there is no need to cut rates in January, but left room for rate cuts later this year. This statement not only demonstrates the Fed’s firm stance but also provides a pragmatic response to market concerns.

The Fed’s Position Under Political Pressure

Independence issue becomes a focal point

Kashkari emphasized that the actions taken by the Trump administration against the Fed over the past year “are actually a matter of monetary policy.” This statement is crucial — he is redefining political pressure as a technical policy issue, attempting to explain and respond to political interference through monetary policy logic. He indicated that this is an opportunity to explain to the American people the importance of the Fed’s independence, implying that the Fed needs to defend its independence at this moment.

Previously, the Department of Justice led a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, which is extremely rare in Fed history. Kashkari’s remarks can be seen as an internal response to this unprecedented political pressure — emphasizing the necessity of independence rather than directly opposing it.

Subtle adjustments to rate cut expectations

Regarding rate cuts, Kashkari’s statements contain three implications:

• Clear stance in January: believes there is no need to cut rates in January
• Flexibility within the year: added that there may still be room for rate cuts later this year
• Current timing is inappropriate: states that “it’s too early” now

This statement both blocks recent rate cut expectations and leaves room for future policy adjustments. Compared to the Fed’s policy trajectory last year, this reflects a cautious attitude towards rate cuts amid balancing inflation pressures and economic resilience.

Actual Market Impact

Signal of stable interest rate expectations

Kashkari’s remarks largely confirm that the Fed is unlikely to rush into rate cuts soon. This indicates to the bond market that short-term interest rate expectations are relatively stable, and for the crypto market, it means there won’t be a significant increase in liquidity due to premature rate cut expectations.

Pricing of political risks

From a market perspective, Kashkari’s comments also send a signal: the Fed is working to maintain its independence and will not change policy direction due to political pressure. This helps stabilize expectations regarding the credibility of the Fed.

What to Watch Next

Kashkari’s speech is scheduled for 1:00 AM on January 15, and more detailed viewpoints may be expressed then. Additionally, the Fed will release the Beige Book on January 15, which could provide further basis for upcoming policy decisions.

From a policy rhythm perspective, the Fed faces a delicate balance: responding to political pressure while maintaining policy independence and effectiveness. Kashkari’s statement indicates that the Fed is trying to maintain this balance by emphasizing the importance of independence rather than passively accepting pressure.

Summary

Kashkari’s remarks reflect the Fed’s policy stance during a special moment: on one hand, firmly defending independence; on the other, maintaining a pragmatic attitude toward rate cuts. The decision to hold off on rate cuts in January is essentially settled, but the existence of room for rate cuts later this year provides the market with some flexibility expectations. For the crypto market, the short-term interest rate environment remains relatively stable, but attention still needs to be paid to how the Fed responds to ongoing political pressure and whether this will be reflected in subsequent policies.