GertVanLagen

$BTC Bump-and-Run pattern setting up, confirmed by volume profile.
Validation: successful break above trend + retest.
Invalidation: break below $60k.

#Bitcoin has ±46 days left to hit $400k this cycle.
At least... between every halving, #Bitcoin has always hit the cycle tops trendline — in the FIRST HALF of the halving cycle.
Black verticals = Halvings
Blue verticals = Halfway to next halving

RUSSELL2000 leads the way for risk-on assets.

#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close.
From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.

#Ethereum keeps following a textbook Expanding Diagonal pattern.
Wave ⑤ since 2018 is in its final stages:
⑤-5-a has printed an ATH.
⑤ -5-b added a 2nd leg down when HTF SMA was lost → filled $1.8k-$2.3k FVG
Target zone:
⑤-5-c targets $9k–$18k 🟩
Invalidation: < ⑤-4

URPD shows where holders sit
$62k–$69k =solid support zone
— 11% of BTC supply last moved here
>40% of BTC holders in range $69k-126k didn’t sell on the $60k dip → strong conviction (!)
— 16% of BTC supply last moved in $84k–$93k range

URPD shows where holders sit
$62k–$69k =solid support zone
— 11% of BTC supply last moved here
More than 40% of BTC holders in range $69k-126k didn’t sell on the $60k dip → shows strong conviction

The Fed pulled off a soft landing!
+ Inflation at 2.4% (basically 2%)
+ 130K jobs added
+ Unemployment falling
Next round of cuts:
Damage control when the train actually hits the wall. 🚂💥

$BTC / M1 [1M] — retest of the 7-year (!) iH&S neckline
Now the setup is even more similar to '16, but much larger:
+ iH&S formed below the previous cycle top
+ Breakout & rejection at the previous cycle top (blue horizontal)
+ Retest of the iH&S neckline
... 🚀
$BTC at $400k isn't far-fetched!

Bitcoin 2018-2026 EW
① Impulse
② Sharp
③ Momentum
④ Flat Expanded
⑤ Extended
-(1) Impulse
-(2) Flat
-(3) Extended
---1 Impulse
---2 Sharp
---3 Momentum
---4 Triangle
---5 Extended
-(4) Sharp
-(5) Blow-off
⑤-(5) is likely not extended, because ⑤-(3) already was.

“ $BTC doesn’t have the right look for a fifth wave, ” they say. ✍️

“ $BTC doesn’t have the right look for a fifth wave, ” they say. ✍️

$BTC [2W] --📣 on 📣 -- both point to $300k+

#DXY [1W] ready for continuation after closing the gap, which was created 2 weeks ago.

RUSSELL 2000 about to enter price discovery once again.
Risk-on remains ON.

Each cycle top lies at — or beyond — the logarithmic extension target of the prior bear market. 🔝
Converted to a red-arrow believer yet, claiming the top is in? 🔴