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"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent: The underlying market risks are accumulating; the Iran-U.S. ceasefire can only delay the escalation of real conflict.
BlockBeats News, May 7 — “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin published “The Facade of a Ceasefire” stating that the market appears calm on the surface but underlying risks are accumulating, and traders should not relax. After Trump’s recent state visit to China (April 14-15), the US-Iran military window could reopen at any time. The ceasefire is not the beginning of good news but a delay in the escalation of real conflict.
Currently, the market looks optimistic on the surface: Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum, Apple’s Q3 guidance greatly exceeded expectations, AMD’s data center revenue hit a new high, South Korean stocks reached new highs, and Bitcoin approached 82-83k, with risk sentiment still present.
But the underlying credit in the market has begun to weaken: data analysis company Qualtrics plans large transactions but no one is willing to take them on; US Spirit Airlines recently went bankrupt, a clear sign of operational difficulties for low-cost airlines; banks are worried about the escalation of the US-Iran war, and have already set aside bad debt reserves in advance, saving for potential war risks. Berkshire’s cash reserves hit record highs, and so on.
Garrett Jin believes that the US-Iran false peace will be maintained until it can no longer be sustained. The potential turning point may be at the end of May, but if tech giants continue to beat expectations, the market’s good performance could last until the Q2 earnings season, thereby delaying the risk window accordingly.