Bitunix Analyst: High interest rates and geopolitical risks coexist, market enters the "demand slowdown but liquidity remains tight" phase

BlockBeats News, May 6 — The global markets are still digesting three main themes: economic slowdown, energy risks, and prolonged high interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates for the third consecutive time, reflecting ongoing concerns about persistent inflation. Even though signs of cooling global demand have appeared, uncertainties in energy and supply chains continue to force policies to remain tight.

The latest data from the United States shows the economy gradually cooling down: service sector growth slowing, and the March trade deficit at $60.3 billion. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve are increasingly leaning toward “delaying rate cuts” rather than resuming rate hikes. This indicates that the current market challenge is not an immediate recession, but the possibility that high interest rates may persist longer.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. announced that its offensive military operations against Iran have “ended,” and Trump even announced a pause on the “Freedom Plan,” attempting to reduce the risk of further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran still emphasizes that both sides are in a state of war, and the UAE continues to issue missile threat alerts, indicating that risks to energy supply chains and shipping have not truly been alleviated.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin recently approached a high of nearly $82,000, but the derivatives market structure has not strengthened accordingly — funding rates remain negative. This suggests that while prices stay high, overall market leverage sentiment remains cautious, with short-term capital still hesitant to chase prices. It also reflects that the current market is more driven by liquidity rather than a full return to risk appetite.