CITIC Futures: Oil supply remains tight, geopolitical outlook unclear

The continuation of low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to disprove for now. Since March, global crude oil inventories have significantly declined and there are still expectations of inventory drawdowns. As negotiations are repeatedly postponed and Iranian exports potentially decrease, supply shortages continue to persist. Even if the situation fully eases later, the upcoming peak demand season due to low crude oil and refined product inventories will support refinery procurement needs. Near-term contracts are expected to remain high, with the pace mainly influenced by Middle Eastern geopolitical developments. As holidays approach, risk control should be emphasized. Continue to monitor the phase of negative news releases and consider rolling out out-of-the-money put options during this period for selling opportunities. (CITIC Futures)