#比特币六连涨 Bitcoin Returns to $90,000 Level, but Market Confidence Remains Insufficient

Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $90,000 level, yet the foundation of this rally remains fragile. Despite the price recovery, traders overall maintain a defensive stance, and the derivatives market has yet to show sustained optimistic sentiment.

As Bitcoin rallied this week, the cryptocurrency derivatives market has shown almost no clear signals to support a sustained uptrend. Even though Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reattracted capital inflows last week, the overall market structure has yet to improve in sync.

The current price recovery resembles more of a temporary respite rather than the beginning of a new uptrend cycle. In key areas reflecting market sentiment—Bitcoin perpetual contracts and periodic contracts—most trading remains concentrated on near-term contracts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, long viewed as an important barometer of institutional investor participation, currently shows subdued demand for forward contracts.

Vetle Lunde, research director at K33 Research, noted in a report released Tuesday that while market sentiment shows slight signs of improvement, the overall tone remains cautious, with investors maintaining a wait-and-see attitude amid the recent gains. The report shows that spot trading volume, volatility, and derivatives leverage levels are hovering near lows seen before December last year, with 86% of open positions concentrated on the most recently maturing contracts.

Meanwhile, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains at relatively low levels, reflecting limited long positions in the market and subdued risk appetite.

However, the selling pressure that persisted for weeks through end-2024 saw a reversal in the initial trading days of this year, driving Bitcoin prices higher. On January 5, Bitcoin ETFs recorded the largest single-day net inflow since October 7 last year, and among the top ten single-day capital inflows since January 1, 2025.

Should Bitcoin strengthen further, it may reactivate futures trading activity at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As the basis between spot and futures prices widens, basis trading—a strategy that profits from the price difference between the two—is poised to become attractive again.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's lackluster performance relative to gold and equity markets has also sparked market discussions on the long-term value of crypto assets. Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted in a report released Monday that Bitcoin volatility continues to decline, especially when compared to gold and risk assets, which may suggest that the most explosive phase of crypto assets has gradually passed.